Incidence tendency of hepatocellular carcinoma in China, 2005-2015
CHEN Yue1, XU Jie-ru1, YANG Zhong-ze1, ZHOU Wei1, YANG Qin-ting2, XIONG Wen-jing3, RANG Wei-qing1
1. School of Public Health, University of South China, Hengyan, Hunan 421001, China; 2. Loudi Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Loudi, Hunan 417000, China; 3. Hengyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hengyan, Hunan 421001, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the changing trend of liver cancer incidence in the Annual Report on Cancer Registration in China so as to provides a scientific reference basis for effective development of liver cancer prevention and treatment. Methods The data about the incidence of liver cancer from 2005 to 2015 were sorted. A Joinpoint regression modelwas used to analyze the changing trend in the incidence rate of liver cancer in China, and the software R was used to perform negative binomial regression model analysis on the risk factors of liver cancer at the population level. Results The standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in China from 2005 to 2015 was basically higher in rural areas than in urban areas as well as higher in males than in females. The standardized incidence rate of liver cancer showed an overall downward trend (AAPC=-0.818, P<0.05). The age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer in urban and rural males aged 30 years showed a rapid increasing trend, and the age-specific incidence rates in rural and urban females aged 45- and 50- years both showed a rapid upward trend over time. The risk of the disease in urban population was 1.198 times that of rural population (95%CI:1.041-1.379, P<0.05), and the risk in males were 3.715 times that of females (95%CI:3.228-4.275, P<0.001). The risk of liver cancer increased by an average of 8.0% for every additional 5 years of age (OR=1.080, 95%CI:1.077-1.083, P<0.001). Conclusion From 2005 to 2015, the incidence of liver cancer in China showed an overall downward trend, but there were differences in urban and rural areas, genders and ages. More effective and complete preventive measures need to be formulated to achieve the optimal effect of liver cancer prevention.
2021, Vol. 28 
