Abstract：Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting periodontal disease onset and construction of a nomogram prediction model. Methods One hundred periodontal tissue disease patients who attended Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from April 2018 to November 2021 were selected as the research subjects, namely, the observation group, and another 100 patients undergoing health check-ups at the hospital during the same period were selected as the control group. The baseline data of the two groups were recorded. Multi-factor logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors influencingonsetof periodontal tissue disease, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed. Internal data were employed to verify the clinical efficacy of the nomogram model. Results In the comparison of general information such as age and gender between the two groups, the differences were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Compared with the control group, the observation group had shorter brushing time, more smokers and irregular brushes, fewer early and late brushes and fewer rinses after meals, all with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for brushing time was 0.787, and the best cut-off value 2 minutes. The time spent brushing (≤2 min), smoking (yes), irregular brushing (yes), brushing early and late (no) and rinsing after meals (no) were risk factors for the development of periodontal disease (P<0.05). The internal validation results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model for predicting the risk of developing periodontal disease in the patients was 0.733 (95%CI:0.669-0.801). DCA results displayed that the model predicted a risk threshold of >0.07 for patient morbidity. Conclusion Brushing time (≤2 min), smoking (yes), irregular brushing (yes), brushing early and late (no) and rinsing after meals (no) are risk factors for the development of periodontal disease in the patients, moreover, the prediction model constructed based on the risk variables in this study can better predict the patients' development of the disease.
陈洁点, 丁丹丹. 牙周病发病危险因素分析及列线图预测模型的构建[J]. 实用预防医学, 2024, 31(2): 185-188.
CHEN Jiedian, DING Dandan. Risk factors for onset of periodontal disease and construction of a predictive model for columnar maps. , 2024, 31(2): 185-188.
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2024, Vol. 31 
