Abstract：Objective To construct a prediction model for the occurrence of overweight and obesity in preschool children. Methods We collected the general data, physical activities and physical measurements of 1,897 children from 10 kindergartens in Urumqi City from October to December, 2021. Lasso regression and multivariable logistic regression were used to select variables related to overweight and obesity in the children to construct a nomogram predictive model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluating the identification ability, accuracy and clinical applicability of the model. Results The detection rate of overweight and obesity in the preschool children was 31.21% (592/1,897). Logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, paternal body mass index, maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index, physical activity, birth weight, caregivers’ perception of children’s body weight, having or having no diabetes during pregnancy, mode of delivery were risk factors for predicting the occurrence of overweight and obesity in the preschool children (P<0.05). The area under the curve of the nomogram for identifying overweight and obesity in the preschool children was 0.831. The nomogram was found with a high goodness of fit by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P>0.05). Decision curve analysis revealed that when the threshold probabilities were between 0.10 and 0.92, using the nomogram resulted in higher net benefit of predicting the risk of overweight and obesity in the preschool children. Conclusion We established and verified a nomogram in this study, which may be helpful for early identification of risk of overweight and obesity in the preschoolers.
胡宁宁, 李婉君, 杨静, 李玉凤, 王仁媛, 林素兰. 学龄前儿童超重肥胖列线图预测模型的构建[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(5): 576-580.
HU Ning-ning, LI Wan-jun, YANG Jing, LI Yu-feng, WANG Ren-yuan, LIN Su-lan. Establishment of a nomogram predictive model for overweight and obesity of preschool children. , 2023, 30(5): 576-580.
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