Abstract：Objective To forecast the measles incidence by ARIMA model, to verify its practicability, and to provide evidence for prevention and control of measles epidemic. Methods SPSS17.0 software was used to establish ARIMA model about the monthly incidence of measles in Urumchi during 2009-2015, and then the monthly incidence of measles in 2016 was forecasted. Results The established ARIMA (0,0,1)(1,1,0)12 model was satisfactory and practicable, and the correlation coefficient of model test was within ±0.5. The predicted values agreed well with the actual values. Conclusions It is practical to apply the approach of ARIMA model to predict the incidence of measles in Urumchi.
梁静,王培生,李新凤,芮宝玲,陈保林. 应用ARIMA模型对麻疹发病的预测及分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2016, 23(8): 1003-1006.
LIANG Jing, WANG Pei-sheng, LI Xin-feng, RUI Bao-ling, CHEN Bao-lin. Application of ARIMA model to forecast and analysis of measles incidence. , 2016, 23(8): 1003-1006.
2016, Vol. 23 
