2019—2020年阳泉市大气PM<sub>2.5</sub>污染与居民心血管疾病死亡效应的时间序列分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-3110.2023.08.003

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摘要目的探讨阳泉市大气PM_2.5与居民心血管疾病死亡人数之间的定量关系。方法收集2019—2020年阳泉市每日的大气污染物资料、气象指标和心血管疾病死亡人数资料,采用时间序列分析探讨大气PM_2.5与居民心血管疾病死亡人数之间的关系。结果 2019—2020年阳泉市因心血管疾病死亡8 386人,每日死亡人数的中位数为11人;同期大气PM_2.5日均浓度的中位数为38.00 μg/m³。2019—2020年阳泉市每日心血管疾病死亡人数与PM_2.5、PM₁₀、NO₂、SO₂和CO浓度呈正相关,与O_{3~8 h}浓度、日均气温和相对湿度呈负相关。单污染物模型中,PM_2.5每升高10 μg/m³,总居民、≥65岁、＜65岁和女性中心血管疾病死亡风险分别增加2.27%(95%CI:0.73%~3.20%)、2.36%(95%CI:1.15%~3.58%)、2.23%(95%CI:0.10%~4.41%)、3.39%(95%CI:1.19%~4.89%);单滞后效应中,PM_2.5与各特征人群心血管疾病死亡人数关联均只在当天差异有统计学意义,女性中效应达到最大,超额危险度(excess risk,ER)值为2.57%(95%CI:0.85%~4.30%);累积滞后效应中,PM_2.5对总居民、≥65岁、＜65岁、女性居民心血管疾病死亡影响累积滞后分别至第5、5、3、7 d,其中累积至4 d时,女性心血管疾病死亡风险最大,ER值为3.54%(95%CI:1.60%~5.50%)。多污染物模型中,在引入SO₂、O_{3~8 h}、NO₂、SO₂+NO₂、SO₂+O_{3~8 h}、SO₂+NO₂+O_{3~8 h}时,PM_2.5对居民心血管疾病死亡的效应值减小。结论阳泉市大气PM_2.5浓度升高可能会导致心血管疾病死亡人数的增加,对女性影响可能更大,且存在滞后效应。

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	张文军
	雷立健

关键词 ：大气污染, PM_2.5, 心血管疾病, 时间序列分析, 滞后效应

Abstract：Objective To explore the quantitative relationship between atmospheric PM_2.5 and deaths due to cardiovascular diseases among residents in Yangquan City. Methods We collected the data regarding daily air pollutants, meteorological indicators and the number of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in Yangquan City from 2019 to 2020, and explored the relationship between atmospheric PM_2.5 and the number of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases among residents by using time series analysis. Results A total of 8,386 residents died of cardiovascular diseases in Yangquan City from 2019 to 2020, with a median of 11 deaths per day. During the same period, the median daily concentration of PM_2.5 was 38.00 μg/m³. The number of deaths from cardiovascular diseases per day in Yangquan City from 2019 to 2020 was positively correlated with theconcentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂ and CO, but negatively correlated with O_3-8h concentration, average daily temperature and relative humidity. In the single pollutant model, for every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration, the risks of death from cardiovascular diseases in the total residents, residents aged ≥ 65 years or < 65 years and females increased by 2.27% (95%CI:0.73%-3.20%), 2.36% (95%CI:1.15%-3.58%), 2.23% (95%CI:0.10%-4.41%) and 3.39% (95%CI:1.19%-4.89%) respectively. The single-day lag effect showed that the association between PM_2.5 and the number of cardiovascular deaths in each characteristic population was statistically significant only on the day of exposure, and the effect was the largest in females, with an excess risk (ER) value of 2.57% (95%CI:0.85%-4.30%). The cumulative lag effect displayed that the cumulative lag of PM_2.5 on the deaths from cardiovascular diseases in the total residents, residents aged ≥ 65 years or < 65 years and females reached the maximum on the 5th, 5th, 3rd and 7th days respectively, and the risk of cardiovascular death in females was the highest when the cumulative lag reached 4th day, with an ER value of 3.54% (95%CI:1.60%-5.50%). In the multi-pollutant model, the effect values of the relationship between PM_2.5 and the deaths from cardiovascular disease among residents decreased when introducing SO₂, O_3-8h, NO₂, SO₂+NO₂, SO₂+O_3-8h and SO₂+NO₂+O_3-8h. Conclusion The increase of PM2.5 concentration in Yangquan City may raise the number of deaths from cardiovascular diseases, and may have a greater impact on females. Moreover, there is a lag effect.

Key words： atmospheric pollution PM_2.5 cardiovascular disease time series analysis lag effect

收稿日期: 2022-07-12

:	R122
	R54

通讯作者: 雷立健, E-mail:wwdlijian@sxmu.edu.cn。

作者简介: 张文军(1989-),男,硕士研究生,公卫医师,主要从事空气污染对人群健康影响监测与干预工作。

引用本文:

张文军, 雷立健. 2019—2020年阳泉市大气PM_2.5污染与居民心血管疾病死亡效应的时间序列分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(8): 908-912. ZHANG Wenjun, LEI Lijian. Time series analysis on the effect between atmospheric PM_2.5 pollution and deaths from cardiovascular diseases among residents in Yangquan City, 2019-2020. , 2023, 30(8): 908-912.

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https://www.syyfyx.com/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-3110.2023.08.003 或 https://www.syyfyx.com/CN/Y2023/V30/I8/908

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