Abstract：Objective To explore the changing trend of mortality and years of life lost owing to road accident in residents in Xiamen City so as to provide evidence for its comprehensive prevention and managemet. Methods The data about residents dying of road accident in Xiamen City from 2008 to 2014 were collected to calculate the evaluation indexes like the mortality rate, the average potential life lost (AYLL), and the average percentage change (APC) of mortality rate. GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality rate and AYLL. Results The average mortality rate of road accident in residents in Xiamen City during 2008-2014 was 11.66/100,000, of which the mortality rate of males was 2.79 times that of females. The AYLL in the total population was 28.15 years. The mortality rate and AYLL were predicted to decrease slightly from 2015 to 2017 based on the GM(1,1) model. Conlusions Road accidents are still the main cause of life lose in residents in Xiamen City. More attention should be paid to the prevention and control of road accidents, especially in strengthening the propaganda in male and elderly populations.
林艺兰， 张琼花. 厦门市居民道路交通事故死亡与减寿趋势分析及预测[J]. 实用预防医学, 2017, 24(1): 46-48.
LIN Yi-lan, ZHANG Qiong-hua. Trend and prediction of mortality and years of life lost due to road accident in residents in Xiamen City. , 2017, 24(1): 46-48.
2017, Vol. 24 
