Abstract：Objective To establish 3 different prediction models based on the existing statistical data released by the government, and to forecast the demand for health human resource allocation in Hunan Province during 2016-2020. Methods The number of medical staff, the number of practicing doctors, the number of assistant practicing doctors and the number of nurses in the hospitals in Hunan Province from 2002 to 2013 were collected from Hunan Provincial Health Statistical Abstract. SPSS 21.0 software, SAS 9.2 and Excel 2007 were employed to construct, match and evaluate linear regression model, curve regression model and grey model, and the optimal fitting model was selected to predict the demand for medical staff, practicing doctors, assistant practicing doctors and nurses in the hospitals in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2020. Results The demand for medical staff, practicing doctors, assistant practicing doctors and nurses in the hospitals in Hunan Province during 2016-2020 were scientifically predicted by grey model [ ±s(%)=2.99±2.15],index model[=2.29E-40×e0.05x)],linear model [(=-4.93E7+24,643.75x)],and grey model[((t)=439,123.94×e0.10(t-1)-386,044.94]. The results of the prediction showed that the demand for medical staff, practicing doctors and registered nurses in the hospitals in Hunan Province during 2016-2020 were gradually increased. The number of medical staff, the number of practicing doctors and the number of registered nurses were expected to reach 331,775, 131,203 and 272,352 respectively by 2020, which respectively increased by 49.1%, 39.4% and 116.6% as compared with 2013. But the demand for the number of assistant practicing doctors was expected to keep 24,644, which decreased by 35.2% as compared with 2013. Conclusions The demand for the number of medical professionals in Hunan Province during 2016-2020 shows a gradually increasing tendency. The predicted results can provide a scientific basis for allocating health human resources in Hunan Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
黄睿,宁佩珊,胡国清. 湖南省“十三五”卫生人力资源需求的预测研究[J]. 实用预防医学, 2016, 23(8): 1010-1013.
HUANG Rui, NING Pei-shan, HU Guo-qing. Prediction of the demand for health human resources during the 13th Five-Year Plan period in Hunan Province. , 2016, 23(8): 1010-1013.
[1] 谭红专, 陈立章. 管理流行病学[M].第1版. 长沙:中南大学出版社, 2013: 38-39. [2] Yang G, Wang Y, Zeng Y, et al.Rapid health transition in China, 1990-2010: findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2010[J]. Lancet, 2013, 381:1987-2015. [3] Liu Y, Yang G, Zeng Y, et al. Policy dialogue on China's changing burden of disease [J]. Lancet, 2013, 381: 1961-1962. [4] 王晓燕,许风娟,王辉.应用回归模型预测2001年我院住院医疗服务收入[J].中国医院管理,2001,21(1):18. [5] 杨春波.基于灰色模型与人工神经网络的改进组合预测模型及其应用研究[D].济南:山东师范大学,2009. [6] 中华人民共和国国家卫生和计划生育委员会.2013年卫生计生统计公报[EB/OL].(2014-5-30)[2016-3-5].http://www.moh.gov.cn/guihuaxxs/s10742/201405/04c736b7fade46a98bbb0333c389f380.shtml. [7] 张禄生,方鹏骞, 董四平,等. 湖北省农村居民卫生服务需求现状及影响因素分析[J].中国卫生经济,2009,314(4):51-54. [8] 罗一, 黄莉.卫生资源配置效率与卫生服务需求的关系研究[J].医学教育探索,2008,7(2):219-221. [9] 田武汉.广东省卫生资源配置和卫生服务调查研究[D].广州:南方医科大学,2011. [10] 吕晖,李云飞,罗五金,等. 中国农村居民卫生服务需求和利用现状[J].实用预防医学,2012,19(5):641-643.
2016, Vol. 23 
