Abstract：Objective To select the premium alert threshold for 6 kinds of major communicable diseases by using the odds diagram method based on the local disease information. Methods Five-year and three-year early detection models were respectively established by using the weekly reported cases concerning 6 kinds of major communicable diseases from 2008 to 2015. The optimal model and thresholds were ascertained through calculation of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, Youden index and drawing receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) with reference to the popular standards. Results The cases of bacillary dysentery, hand-foot-mouth disease, chicken pox, influenza and pulmonary tuberculosis did not conform to the normal distribution, and were not suitable to deviation bar chart for the early warning. But other infectious diarrhea cases were fit for deviation bar chart based on 5-year early detection model, and the premium alert threshold was 95%, with the sensivity, specificity and positive predictive values being all 100% and Youden index being 1.00. Conclusions Deviation bar chart can be used as the early warning model for other infectious diarrheas.
朱婷婷, 孙利文, 常姗姗, 陈俊涛, 杨丽梅, 崔国强. 比数图法在北京市怀柔区重点传染病预警中的方法探讨[J]. 实用预防医学, 2017, 24(10): 1270-1273.
ZHU Ting-ting, SUN Li-wen, CHANG Shan-shan, CHEN Jun-tao, YANG Li-mei, CUI Guo-qiang. Methods of deviation bar chart in early warning for major communicable diseases in Huairou District of Beijing. , 2017, 24(10): 1270-1273.
2017, Vol. 24 
