基于传染病动力学模型的一起幼儿园人腺病毒感染暴发疫情的流行特征分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-3110.2023.09.014

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摘要目的应用传染病动力学模型研究人腺病毒在幼儿园暴发的流行规律,并定量评价病例隔离、综合防控等措施的效果。方法根据疾病的自然史建立适合人腺病毒的SEIR模型。收集长沙市一起幼儿园人腺病毒暴发疫情数据,将模型与疫情数据相拟合,获得传播系数,模拟无干预状态下的疫情暴发流行特点,然后在不同时期采取不同防控措施,从而定量评价防控效果。结果该起幼儿园腺病毒疫情实际累计病例报告数为76例,持续时间为39 d,罹患率为9.93%。在无干预状态下,累计发病数为331例,疫情持续时间为83 d,罹患率为43.27%。不同时间采取不同防控措施后,模拟结果显示,由于存在一定数量的隐性感染者,病例隔离措施的防控效果不明显;采取综合防控措施后,疫情持续时间、罹患人数显著降低。越早采取综合防控措施效果越好。结论在处置幼儿园人腺病毒感染暴发疫情中,落实病例停课隔离,并采用环境通风消毒、暂停聚集性活动等综合措施,可减少发病数和缩短疫情持续时间。

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	胡蓉

关键词 ：人腺病毒, 暴发, 传染病动力学模型, 幼儿

Abstract：Objective To study the epidemic pattern of an outbreak of human adenovirus in a kindergarten using infectious disease dynamics model, and to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of measures such as case isolation and comprehensive prevention and control. Methods We established a susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model suitable for human adenovirus based on the natural history of the disease. We collected the data regarding an outbreak of human adenovirus in a kindergarten in Changsha City, fitted the model with the epidemic data, obtained the transmission coefficient, and simulated the epidemic characteristics of the outbreak without interventions. And then, different prevention and control measures were taken at different times to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control. Results Seventy-six cases of adenovirus infection were cumulatively reported in this kindergarten. The duration was 39 days and the attack rate was 9.93%. Under the condition of no interventions, the epidemic continued for 83 days, with 331 cases in total, and the attack rate was 43.27%. Different prevention and control measures were taken at different times, and simulation results showed that due to the presence of a certain number of latent infections, the prevention and control effect of case isolation measures was not significant. After implementing comprehensive prevention and control measures, the duration of the epidemic and the number of patients significantly decreased. The earlier comprehensive prevention and control measures were taken, thebettereffectiveness was obtained. Conclusion In dealing with the outbreak of adenovirus infection inthiskindergarten, implementing suspension of classes and isolation and comprehensive measures such as environmental ventilation and disinfection, and suspension of gathering activities can reduce the number of cases and shorten the duration of the epidemic

Key words： human adenovirus outbreak infectious disease dynamics model young children

收稿日期: 2023-05-10

R725.1

作者简介: 胡蓉(1987-),女,硕士研究生,中级职称,主要从事传染病防控工作。

引用本文:

胡蓉. 基于传染病动力学模型的一起幼儿园人腺病毒感染暴发疫情的流行特征分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(9): 1087-1090. HU Rong. Epidemic characteristics of an outbreak of human adenovirus infection in a kindergarten based on infectious disease dynamics model. , 2023, 30(9): 1087-1090.

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