Abstract：Objective To fit the epidemic trend of COVID-19 so as to provide evidence for application of logistic model to the epidemic of emerging infectious diseases. Methods Based on logistic model, the officially-reported data about the COVID-19 epidemic from January 10 to March 12, 2020 were used to fit the model. The parameters were estimated with non-linear least square estimation method. Results Logistic model fitted well, with the determination coefficients R2 of 4 models being all higher than 0.99. The fitting curves were consistent with the changing trend of the real epidemic. The average relative errors of the model were large (74.1%-427.0%) before the gradually growing point and decreased to 1.0%-4.1% after the increasingly growing point. The fitting results revealed thatthe epidemic reached its peakin the whole country (except Hubei Province), Hubei Province (except Wuhan City) and Shanghaion February 2-5, 2020, and entered the slow-growing stage on February 6-11, 2020.The epidemic reached its peak in Wuhan on February 11, 2020, and entered the slow-growing stage on February 16, 2020. The model showed that the interval between the first case report and the peak of the epidemic as well as the interval between initiationg the first level emergency response and the decreasingly growing point were both the longest incubation period. Conclusion Logistic model fitted well for the COVID-19 epidemic. It can divide the epidemic trend into stages, and provide a scientific basis for decision making in epidemic prevention and control and effect evaluation of prevention and control measures.
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