Evaluation on the effect of temporal-spatial model for outbreak detection of infectious diseases in Zhejiang Province
LU Qinbao1, WU Haocheng1, DING Zheyuan1, WANG Xinyi1, WU Chen1, LIN Junfen1,2
1. Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China; 2. Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory for Vaccine, Prevention and Control of Infectious Disease,Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the early warning performance of temporal-spatial model for infectious disease outbreak detection in Zhejiang Province, and to provide references for constructing a multi-point trigger system for early warnings. Methods The early warning signals of diseases related to the temporal-spatial model for infectious disease detection in Zhejiang Province during 2017-2021 were descriptively analyzed, and compared with the results of reported public health emergency events in the same period. Performance of the temporal-spatial model was qualitatively evaluated by indicators on its sensitivity and false alarm rate. Results There were 16,382 early warning signals issued by the temporal-spatial model in Zhejiang Province from 2017 to 2021, involving 16 kinds of infectious diseases, with an average of 0.71 signal per county per week. The response rate was 100%, and the median response time 0.84 hour. A total of 342 outbreaks due to 5 kinds of infectious diseases were confirmed via preliminary verification and field investigation of early warning signals. The sensitivity of detection based on thetemporal-spatial model was 66.02%. The positive predictive value of type I diseases was 6.99%, and the false alarm rate 0.0227%. The positive predictive value of type II diseases was 3.44%, and the false alarm rate 0.9450%. Conclusion The temporal-spatial model has a good early warning performance, and can be used to achieve automatic early alter for outbreak of infectious diseases. However, its detection and identification function for outbreaks is limited. More efforts should be made to further adjust and optimize the model so as to meet the needs of current infectious disease surveillance and early warning.
鲁琴宝, 吴昊澄, 丁哲渊, 王心怡, 吴晨, 林君芬. 浙江省传染病时空模型探测暴发疫情的效果评价[J]. 实用预防医学, 2024, 31(2): 152-155.
LU Qinbao, WU Haocheng, DING Zheyuan, WANG Xinyi, WU Chen, LIN Junfen. Evaluation on the effect of temporal-spatial model for outbreak detection of infectious diseases in Zhejiang Province. , 2024, 31(2): 152-155.
2024, Vol. 31 
