Abstract：Objective To establish the risk assessment index system for outbreak/epidemic of infectious diseases. Methods The framework of risk assessment index system of epidemic outbreak or epidemic dynamics was obtained by literature review, expert interview and brainstorming. Delphi method was used to carry out two rounds of expert consultation. According to the feedback of experts, we conducted a comprehensive analysis to add, reduce and modify the indexes, and finally determined the evaluation index system. Results Expert scoring method and expert authority coefficient were used to determine the weight of each level of indexes, and the weight coefficients of possibility and severity of indexes at the first level were 0.52 and 0.48, respectively. There were 24 experts completed two rounds of correspondence, 23 of whom had implemented risk assessment studies on infectiousdiseases. The positive coefficients of experts in the first and second rounds based on Delphi method were 77.14% and 100%, respectively. The coordination coefficients of familiarity score of experts in the first and second rounds were 0.63 and 0.62, respectively (P<0.05), and the coordination coefficients of importance score were 0.59 and 0.63, respectively (P<0.05). After two rounds of expert letter consultation, an index system for risk assessment of infectious disease outbreak/epidemic was established, including 2 first-level indexes, 8 second-level indexes and 30 third-level indexes. Conclusion This study constructed a set of scientific, specific and universally applicable risk assessment index system for most infectious disease outbreaks/epidemics through expert consultation method and Delphi method.
梁跃红, 何舰, 周晓昕, 杨锐, 余蓉. 传染病暴发/流行风险评估指标体系的构建[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(5): 621-625.
LIANG Yue-hong, HE Jian, ZHOU Xiao-xin, YANG Rui, YU Rong. Construction of the risk assessment index system for outbreak/epidemic of infectious diseases. , 2023, 30(5): 621-625.
2023, Vol. 30 
