Abstract：Objective To analyze the seasonal distribution regularity of rotavirus detection rate among outpatient children in Beijing from 2011 to 2018, and to explore suitable prediction model. Methods The round distribution method was adopted to analyze the seasonal distribution characteristics of rotavirus detection rate among outpatient children in Beijing from July 2011 to June 2018. Eviews 9.0 software was used to build and optimize the ARIMA model. The model was used to forecast rotavirus detection rate among outpatient children in Beijing from July to December in 2018, and the model was verified through comparison ofthe predictive value and the actual value. Results There were seasonal characteristics in rotavirus detection among outpatient children in Beijing in 2011-2018 (M=0.59), and the epidemic tendency was basically similar except in 2012-2013. The peak season appeared in winter and spring (from November to January next year). There were peak days and peak period in each year, but the peak days were not all the same in each year (F=9.23, P<0.05). The optimal model was SARIMA(1,1,1)×(1,0,2)12, and the average absolute prediction error was 5.65%. Conclusions The detection rates of rotavirus among outpatient children in Beijing in 2011-2018 were found to be higher in winter and spring. The established SARIMA (1,1,1)(1,0,2)12 model is of good fitting effect, and it is suitable for predicting the detection rate of rotavirus among outpatient children in Beijing.
[1] Operario DJ, Platts-Mills JA, Nadan S, et al.Etiology of severe acute watery diarrhea inchildren in the global rotavirus surveillance network using quantitative polymerase chain reaction[J].J Infect Dis, 2017, 216(2):220-227. [2] 张振, 李媛, 路滟, 等.深圳市2010—2015年轮状病毒腹泻流行特征分析[J].实用预防医学, 2019, 26(1):63-67. [3] 金晶, 张业成, 刘映乐, 等.2015年湖北省武汉市5岁以下儿童病毒性腹泻病原学研究[J].疾病监测, 2018, 33(11):940-944. [4] 祁红梅, 路娟, 刘继凯.丰台医院腹泻患儿轮状病毒感染的流行病学特征和临床诊治[J].国际病毒学杂志, 2018, 25(4):264-267. [5] 李锡太,陈艳伟,何战英, 等.北京市2004—2015年布鲁氏菌病时间分布特征分析[J].实用预防医学, 2017, 24(2):185-187. [6] 刘雁灵, 曹文君.应用集中度和圆形分布分析我国钩端螺旋体病发病的季节性趋势[J].现代预防医学, 2016, 43(10):1729-1731. [7] Tian Y, Chughtai AA, Gao ZY, et al.Prevalence and genotypes of group A rotavirus among outpatient children under five years old with diarrhea in Beijing, China, 2011-2016[J].BMC Infect Dis, 2018, 18(1):497. [8] Ouedraogo N, Ngangas SM, Bonkoungou IJ, et al.Temporal distribution of gastroenteritis viruses in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso:seasonality of rotavirus[J].BMC Public Health, 2017, 17(1):274. [9] Patel MM, Pitzer VE, Alonso WJ, et al.Global seasonality of rotavirus disease[J].Pediatr Infect Dis J, 2013, 32(4):e134-147. [10] 蒋翠莲, 许烨, 刘云, 等.南京市门诊腹泻患儿轮状病毒及诺如病毒的感染状况分析[J].国际病毒学杂志, 2018, 25(6):392-396. [11] 沙比热木·托合塔木, 王森路, 马合木提.2008—2016年乌鲁木齐市5岁以下腹泻住院儿童轮状病毒感染状况调查[J].国际病毒学杂志, 2018, 25(5):330-333. [12] Troeger C, Khalil IA, Rao PC, et al.Rotavirus vaccination and the global burden of rotavirus diarrhea among children younger than 5 years[J].JAMA Pediatr, 2018, 172(10):958-965. [13] 姚一泓, 霍达, 贾蕾, 等.手足口病预警模型及其应用现状[J].国际病毒学杂志, 2018, 25(2):136-139. [14] 周美兰, 周志华, 罗美玲, 等.湖南省哨点医院流感样病例SARIMA模型预测[J].实用预防医学, 2018, 25(3):370-373. [15] 汪鹏, 彭颖, 杨小兵.ARIMA模型与Holt-Winters指数平滑模型在武汉市流感样病例预测中的应用[J].现代预防医学, 2018, 45(3):385-389.
2019, Vol. 26 
