Relationship between temporal and spatial distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease and meteorological factors in Hunan Province, 2009-2018
LUO Hong-mei1,2, LUO Kai-wei3, HE Shu-tian1,2, ZHAO Shan-lu3, LI Hao1,2, HU Shi-xiong3
1. Hunan Provincial Meteorological Service Center, Changsha, Hunan 410118, China; 2. Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Changsha, Hunan 410118, China; 3. Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan 410005, China
Abstract：Objective To retrospectively analyze the temporal and spatial distribution and etiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in 14 cities and prefectures of Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018, and to conduct researches on their correlations with meteorological factors and the prediction model. Methods SQLSEVER 2008 and EXCEL 2016 were used to clean and process the data. The software ARGGIS was employed to make charts. SPSS22.0 software was used for correlation analysis. Multiple linear stepwise regression method was applied to prediction, and assignment evaluation method was used for risk zoning study. Results A total of 1,402,027 HFMD cases were reported in Hunan Province during 2009-2018. The annualincidence rate was 5.05/10,000-31.94/10,000, the average annual incidence rate 20.92/10,000. There were 10,248 severecases, the annual proportion of severe cases was 0.18%-1.64%, and the average annual proportion of severe cases was 0.73%. There were 275 death cases, and the average annual mortality rate was 0.02%. The majority of the patients were under 6 years old, accounting for 97.50%. The ratio of male to female was 1.58:1. The annual number of cases was significantly correlated with annual precipitation (rs=0.661, P=0.038) and annual sunshine hours (rs=-0.661, P=0.038). The monthly number of cases was significantly associated with monthly mean air pressure (rs=-0.446, P=0.000), temperature (rs=0.423, P=0.000), relative humidity (rs=0.288, P=0.002), and precipitation (rs=0.542, P=0.000). Conclusion The incidence rate of HFMD in Hunan Province during 2009-2018 showed an upward trend as a whole. A high incidence was found in even-numbered years. The peak incidence of HFMD occurred from April to July as well as from September to November. Most of the cases were scattered and nursery children under 6 years old. Male patients were more than female ones. The monthly number of cases was significantly correlated with average monthly precipitation, average monthly temperature and average monthly sunshine hours. Changsha, Loudi, Xiangxi Prefecture, Xiangtan, Yiyang and Yueyang were the high-risk incidence areas of HFMD.
罗红梅, 罗垲炜, 何舒天, 赵善露, 李浩, 胡世雄. 2009—2018年湖南省手足口病时空分布与气象因子关系研究[J]. 实用预防医学, 2022, 29(10): 1153-1157.
LUO Hong-mei, LUO Kai-wei, HE Shu-tian, ZHAO Shan-lu, LI Hao, HU Shi-xiong. Relationship between temporal and spatial distribution of hand, foot and mouth disease and meteorological factors in Hunan Province, 2009-2018. , 2022, 29(10): 1153-1157.
2022, Vol. 29 
