Research and application of early warning and grading standard for the incidence risk of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hunan Province
LUO Hong-mei1,2, CHEN Yu-gui1, LI Hao1, GAO Li-dong3, HU Shi-xiong3, LUO Kai-wei3
1. Hunan Meteorological Service Center, Changsha, Hunan 410118, China; 2. Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Changsha, Hunan 410118, China; 3. Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan 410005, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the correlation of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) incidence risk indicators (including the incidence rate, the proportion of severe cases, the positive rate of EV71 and the case fatality rate) with meteorological factors in Hunan Province from 2011 to 2018, to build a prediction model, and to carry out the research and application of early warning and grading standards for the incidence risk of HFMD. Methods The data were processed by z-score standardization. Analytic hierarchy process and expert scoring method were used to determine the weights of HFMD incidence risk indicators, and the weighted superposition model was applied to obtaining the value of early warning level of HFMD incidence risk. Using K-means clustering method, the early warning level of HFMD incidence risk was divided into four categories: red, orange, yellow and blue. The early warning classification standard for HFMD incidence risk in Hunan was constructed. Results As for the multiple stepwise regression prediction model constructed by the incidence rate, the proportion of severe cases, the positive rate of EV71, the case fatality rate and meteorological factors, R2 was between 0.019 and 0.119, and F value between 7.213 and 37.598. The weights of effects of the incidence rate, the proportion of severe cases, the positive rate of EV71 and the case fatality rate on the grades of HFMD incidence risk were 0.56, 0.26, 0.12 and 0.06, respectively. The maximum eigenvector (λmax) was 4.118, the consistency index (CI) 0.040, the consistency ratio (CR) 0.044, and CR<0.1. The cluster centers of early warning grades of HFMD incidence risk were -0.3288, 0.3258, 1.4141 and 4.0639, respectively. The three thresholds were -0.002, 0.880 and 2.750, respectively. Conclusion The multiple stepwise regression prediction model constructed by HFMD incidence risk indicators (including the incidence rate, the proportion of severe cases, the positive rate of EV71 and the case fatality rate) and meteorological factors in Hunan Province in 2011- 2017 passed the significance test. The prediction model was valid, and the weights of HFMD incidence risk indicators were effective. The early warning classification standard for HFMD incidence risk in Hunan Province was verified based on the HFMD incidence data in Hunan Province in 2017-2018, and it was found that the predicted early warning level fitted well with the actual situation. The constructed early warning classification standard for HFMD incidence risk in Hunan Province has good application value.
罗红梅, 陈玉贵, 李浩, 高立冬, 胡世雄, 罗垲炜. 湖南省手足口病发病风险预警分级标准研究及应用[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(5): 518-523.
LUO Hong-mei, CHEN Yu-gui, LI Hao, GAO Li-dong, HU Shi-xiong, LUO Kai-wei. Research and application of early warning and grading standard for the incidence risk of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hunan Province. , 2023, 30(5): 518-523.
2023, Vol. 30 
