Comparison of effects of GM (1,1) model, ARIMA model and their combination models in the prediction of monthly reported caseload of viral hepatitis A
LIU Tian1,2, ZHANG Li-jie2, WENG Xi-jun2, YAO Meng-lei1, HUANG Ji-gui1, CHEN Hong-ying3, HUANG Shu-qiong3, YANG Wen-wen3, CAI Jing3, WU Ran3
1. Jingzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou, Hubei 434000, China;
2. Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Beijing 100050, China;
3. Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China
Abstract：Objective To explore the application of grey model GM (1, 1), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two models established on the basis of combination of the above-mentioned models to forecast of caseload of hepatitis A. Methods The data about monthly reported caseload of hepatitis A in a province from January 2009 to December 2013 were used as the fitting data, and the data about monthly reported caseload of hepatitis A from January to December in 2014 as the prediction data. GM (1, 1) model, ARIMA model, GM (1, 1)-ARIMA combination model and weight changeable combination model were established and the effects of the four models were evaluated based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean error rate (MER), mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Results The MAPE, MER, MSE and MAE fitted and predicted by GM (1, 1) model, ARIMA model, GM (1, 1)-ARIMA combination model and weight changeable combination model were as follows: 20.01％, 18.35％, 115.98, 10.96 and 28.79％, 31.84％, 32.96, 8.01;21.35％, 19.52％, 120.75, 11.66 and 32.41％, 35.65％, 36.18, 8.97;17.20％, 15.69％, 88.07, 9.07 and 31.17％, 34.17％, 34.57, 8.60;18.82％, 16.99％, 107.82, 10.15 and 19.19％, 18.67％, 20.74, 4.70. Conclusions The fitting and predictive effects of the combined model are superior to those of the single model. The weight changeable combination model is the optimal prediction model.
刘天, 张丽杰, 翁熹君, 姚梦雷, 黄继贵, 陈红缨, 黄淑琼, 杨雯雯, 蔡晶, 吴然. GM(1,1)模型、ARIMA模型及其组合模型在病毒性甲型肝炎发病数中的预测效果比较[J]. 实用预防医学, 2020, 27(3): 315-318.
LIU Tian, ZHANG Li-jie, WENG Xi-jun, YAO Meng-lei, HUANG Ji-gui, CHEN Hong-ying, HUANG Shu-qiong, YANG Wen-wen3, CAI Jing, WU Ran. Comparison of effects of GM (1,1) model, ARIMA model and their combination models in the prediction of monthly reported caseload of viral hepatitis A. , 2020, 27(3): 315-318.
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