Abstract：Objective To forecast the risks of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among population in Beijing area by using the risk prediction theory and method of NCDs established in the previous study, and to provide a scientific basis for the research and development of systemic risk control management strategies and overall capacity improvement. Methods SPSS 23.0 software was used to statistically analyze the mortality rates of NCDs. According to the NCDs risk assessment method recommended by the World Health Organization, the data of NCDs among population in Beijing were analyzed by expert consultation method, and the future risks of NCDs in population in Beijing were evaluated. Results It was predicted that the mortality rates of malignant tumors, heart disease and chronic respiratory diseases in 2025 might be 221.2/100,000, 205.0/100,000 and 63.7/100,000 respectively, and those in 2030 might be 241.3/100,000, 220.5/100,000 and 67.3/100,000 respectively, which would increase by 36.1%, 29.4% and 0.03% respectively as compared with those in 2016. Conclusions It is predicted that the risks of NCDs in Beijing area in 2025 and 2030 will be high, but the risks can be reduced from high to medium level by implementing comprehensive prevention and treatment measures, such as strengthening the construction of healthy cities, intensifying pre-hospital first aid, equalizing resource allocation in remote suburbs, environmental governance, landscaping, smoking control, early screening, early diagnosis, early treatment and precision treatment.
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2019, Vol. 26 
