Abstract:Objective To establish three forecast models for analyzing the seasonal incidence of mumps so as to provide a theoretical basis for the prediction method for mumps. Methods We collected the data about the monthly incidence rates of mumps in China from January 2004 to December 2018, andthe monthly incidence rates of mumps from January 2004 to December 2017served as the training data.We established the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Winter linear and seasonal exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) model and neural network autoregressive (NNAR) model respectively. The data concerning the monthly incidence rates of mumps from January to December 2018 were used as the test set. The prediction effects of the three models were evaluated. Results From January 2004 to December 2018, the monthly incidence rate of mumps in China was found to be the highest in June 2012 and the lowest in February 2016. There were two annual peaks of incidence, with the annual maximum peak occurring in April-July and the annual minor peak in November-January. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of SARIMA model, Holt-Winters model and NNAR model prediction were 18.63%, 18.65% and 16.31% respectively, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were 0.29, 0.36 and 0.39 respectively, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) were 0.26, 0.30 and 0.30 respectively, and R2 were 93.43%, 83.79% and 78.24% respectively. The time series forecasting model with the best forecast effect was SARIMA model, followed by Holt-Winters model, and the forecasting effect of NNAR model was the worst. Conclusion SARIMA model can well predict the incidence of mumps in China, and provide references for mumps prevention and control in future.
汤梦莹, 宋晓坤, 梁凯琼, 牛娜, 唐沛莹, 黎燕宁. 三种预测模型对中国流行性腮腺炎月度发病率预测的应用与比较[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(11): 1392-1395.
TANG Mengying, SONG Xiaokun, LIANG Kaiqiong, NIU Na, TANG Peiying, LI Yanning. Application and comparison of three models for predicting the monthly incidence rates of mumps in China. , 2023, 30(11): 1392-1395.
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