Mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic diseases in a city of Hubei Province, 2014-2019
SHEN Wan-ying1, HUO Jun-rong2, HAO Guang1, ZENG Yu-xing1, ZHAO Xin-hai1, LIU Bo1, CHEN Qing-shan1
1. Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510632, China; 2. Zhongxiang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhongxiang, Hubei 431900, China
Abstract:Objective To analyze the changing trends of mortality and early death probability of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province, and to provide a basis for formulating the local planning for chronic disease prevention and control. Methods Based on the surveillance data of death causes of residents in Zhongxiang City from 2014 to 2019, the probability of premature death of chronic diseases was calculated by the principle of life table method. The trend chi-square test of the progress rate was carried out using SPSS 20.0 software. The annual percent changes (APC) of mortality and premature death probability were calculated by Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software. Results From 2014 to 2019, the crude death rate of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 495.02/100,000, and the standardized death rate 448.27/100,0002. The crude death rate of four kinds of chronic diseases was 457.77/100,000, and the standardized death rate 400.04/100,000. The standardized mortalities of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-6.60%, t=-8.18, P=0.001), females (APC=-7.04%, t=-3.04, P=0.039) and total population (APC=-6.23%, t=-4.78, P=0.009) showed downward trends, and the changing trends were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The probability of premature death from chronic diseases was 14.55%, and that from four kinds of chronic diseases 13.17%. The probability of premature death of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-2.53%, t=-2.78, P=0.049) showed a downward trend, and the changing trend was statistically significant (P<0.05). Trends in the probability of premature death from diabetes (APC=22.05%, t=2.84, P=0.048) showed a clear upward trend, and there were statistically significant differences in the changing trends (P<0.05). Conclusion The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 13.17%, which increased by 0.01% from 2014 to 2019. No statistically significant differences were found in the trend analysis, and there was still a big gap with the China Health 2030 target. The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases was higher in males than in females. Hence males are the key population for future chronic disease intervention. The probability of early death from diabetes increased significantly. Hence comprehensive interventions for diabetes should be given priority.
沈宛颖, 霍军荣, 郝光, 曾昱兴, 赵心海, 刘博, 陈青山. 2014—2019年湖北省某市慢性病死亡率及早死概率分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2021, 28(7): 769-773.
SHEN Wan-ying, HUO Jun-rong, HAO Guang, ZENG Yu-xing, ZHAO Xin-hai, LIU Bo, CHEN Qing-shan. Mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic diseases in a city of Hubei Province, 2014-2019. , 2021, 28(7): 769-773.
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