Research of the premature statistical analysis through the Arima prediction modeling
Mo Jiaqi1, Wen Shuizhen2, Liu Zhijun1, Jianglan1, Yang binbo1, Zhuchun1
1 MCH hospital of Hunan province,Changsha Hunan,410008 2 The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Traditional Chinese Medical College,Zhuzhou Hunan,412000
Abstract：To explore the application of Arima prediction modeling in premature statistical analysis so as to provide scientific evidence for hospital management and policy settting.Methods:Predicting the trend of premature by using ARIMA prediction modeling. Results:Predicted the rising trend of premature and the rising periodic feature by building ARIMA（2,1,1）（0,1,1）.Conclusion:ARIMA（2,1,1）（0,1,1）modeling fitted the time variation trend of premature well during 2009 to 2013 in MCH hospital of Hunan province, and predicted the development trend of the coming year. It is proved that ARIMA modeling can provide satisfied predictions of the premature is to be thought as the ideal research method.
莫佳琪, 文水珍, 刘志辉, 江岚, 杨滨波, 朱淳. ARIMA模型在医院早产儿情况预测中的应用[J]. 实用预防医学, 2015, 22(1): 117-119.
Mo Jiaqi, Wen Shuizhen, Liu Zhijun, Jianglan, Yang binbo, Zhuchun. Research of the premature statistical analysis through the Arima prediction modeling. , 2015, 22(1): 117-119.
2015, Vol. 22 
