Abstract：Objective To explore the changing trend of death and years of life loss due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City so as to provide evidence for its comprehensive prevention and control. Methods The data about residents dying of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 were collected and cleared up to calculate the mortality rate, the average years of life loss (AYLL) and the average annual percentage change (APC) of mortality rate,etc. GM (1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results The mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 was 2.27/100,000, and the mortality rate of males was 2.83 times that of females. The AYLL due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 16.95 years. All mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City could fit out the GM (1,1) model, but the AYLL could not. The mean absolute percent errors between the simulated values and the observed values were 2.90%-8.32%. The mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 2015 to 2017 were predicted to be decreased slightly. Conclusions The GM (1,1) model can be used for forecasting the mortality rate due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is still an important cause of premature death among residents in Xiamen City; and hence, more attention should be paid to its prevention and control.
林艺兰, 林田泉, 龚永燕. 厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡与减寿趋势分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2016, 23(10): 1170-1172.
LIN Yi-lan, LIN Tian-quan, GONG Yong-yan. Tendency of death and life reduction from nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City. , 2016, 23(10): 1170-1172.
2016, Vol. 23 
