Prediction on the efficacy of the second booster dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines against Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.5 and BQ.1.1
BAI Xufang, CHEN Xinhua, YU Hongjie
Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
Abstract：Objective To predict the efficacy against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages across three clinical endpoints after the second booster dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. Methods We collected neutralizing antibody data induced by the second booster dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines through systematic literature search. Then we used a model to predict the vaccine efficacy against Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.5 and BQ.1.1 infections, symptomatic illness and severe SARS-CoV-2 infection after the second booster dose. Results The study showed that the predicted efficacy was both less than 50% against Omicron BA.5 and BQ.1.1 infections in 1 week, 2 weeks and 90 days post four doses of BNT162b2, 54.2%-72.4% against symptomatic illness due to Omicron BA.5 and BQ.1.1 and more than 90.0% against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection due to Omicron BA.5 and BQ.1.1. In one month post three doses of BNT162b2 and one dose of Pfizer bivalent vaccine based prototype strain and BA.4/5, the predicted efficacy was 97.6% (95%CI:95.0%-98.8%) and 90.8% (95%CI:83.9%-95.0%) against symptomatic illness due to Omicron BA.5 and BQ.1.1 respectively, and 99.5% (95%CI:99.0%-99.8%) and 98.1% (95%CI:96.5%-99.0%) against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection due to Omicron BA.5 and BQ.1.1 respectively. Conclusion Four doses of monovalent mRNA vaccines, three doses of BNT162b2 and one dose of Pfizer bivalent vaccine (prototype strain and BA.4/5) can reduce the risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection due to Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.5 and BQ.1.1 effectively. Thus, the second booster dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines should be vaccinated as soon as possible.
白旭芳, 陈鑫华, 余宏杰. 新冠病毒mRNA疫苗第二剂次加强免疫对奥密克戎变异株BA.1、BA.2、BA.5和BQ.1.1的保护效力预测[J]. 实用预防医学, 2023, 30(9): 1025-1031.
BAI Xufang, CHEN Xinhua, YU Hongjie. Prediction on the efficacy of the second booster dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines against Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.5 and BQ.1.1. , 2023, 30(9): 1025-1031.
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