Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of varicella in Hubei Province, 2010-2019
TANG Li1, HUANG Shu-qiong2, CAI Jing2, TU Hua2
1. Hubei Provincial Standardized Training Program Base for Public Health Physicians/Community Health Service Center of Shouyi Street, Wuchang District, Wuhan City, Wuhan, Hubei 430060, China; 2. Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2019, to predict the short-term incidence trend, and to provide a certain scientific basis for varicella prevention and control. Methods Descriptive analysis, Spearman rank correlation analysis, cluster analysis and seasonal index model were used for analysis and prediction. Results The annual average incidence rate of varicella in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2019 was 46.06/100,000, which was significantly and positively correlated with the years (rs=0.842, P=0.010). The peak period of incidence was May-June and October-January of the following year. There were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates among the regions of the province (χ2=50,591.454, P<0.001). According to the severity of annual average incidence rates, 17 cities and prefectures in Hubei Province were divided into two categories by cluster analysis (F=31.954, P<0.001). Children aged 0-14 years were a high-risk group. Occupational distribution showed that most patients were students, children in kindergartens and scattered children. The incidence rate of males was higher than that of females (χ2=2,943.978, P<0.001). The fitted seasonal index model wasXt1=(2.185+0.025t)×St1, with the mean relative error (MRE) of 8.65%. As for predicting the incidence rates in 2020, the MRE between the predicted value and the actual value in other months except February-August was 28.02%. Conclusion The incidence level of varicella in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2019 generally showed an upward trend. The incidence presented a bimodal distribution. Students were the main incidence group. The incidence rate was higher in males than infemales. The incidence was concentrated in the northwestern area of Hubei Province, mainly in Shennongjia forest area. seasonal index model has a good applicability in predicting the incidence trend of varicella.
2023, Vol. 30 
