Comparison of seasonal epidemic characteristics and stage trends of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang, 2005-2021
MAILIMAN Bahani1, SALAWATI Haritebieke1, NIE Yan-wu1, TIAN Mao-zai2,3, ZHANG Li-ping3
1. School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830017, China; 2. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China; 3. College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830017, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemic status and transmission law of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang in recent years, and to provide a basis for further prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods Based on the annual reported incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in the nationwide and Xinjiang in 2005-2020, a joinpoint regression (JPR) model was established to compare the changing trend of pulmonary tuberculosis. According to the number of monthly reported pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Xinjiang from January 2005 to August 2021, Prophet model and seasonalautoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model were established to analyze the seasonal variation characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence, and the fitting accuracy of the two models was compared. Results The fitting results of the JPR model showed that compared with the slow decline and having no obvious turning point in the nationwide, the changing curve of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence rate in Xinjiang was divided into three stages by two obvious turning points: slow decrease stage (2005-2015, annual percent change (APC)=-1.988, P<0.05), unobvious increase stage (2015-2018, APC=19.071, P>0.05) and significant decrease stage (2018-2020, APC=-36.048, P<0.05). On the whole, the changing trend was relatively stable. Results of Prophet model and ARIMA (1, 1, 2) × (1, 1, 1)12 model showed that the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang was high in January and March, but low in September. The fitting effect of Prophet model was superior to that of traditional ARIMA model. Conclusion The reported incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang in 2005-2021 were far higher than those of the nationwide, and there was a significant seasonal effect. It is necessary to further strengthen prevention and control ofpulmonary tuberculosis in spring.
2022, Vol. 29 
