Establishment of prediction model and risk score of impaired fasting glucose
LIU Xiao-lei1,2, LIU Xiang-tong1,2, TAO Li-xin1,2, LIU Jia3, CHEN Shuo4, KANG Xiao-ping5, ZHANG Jing-bo4, GUO Xiu-hua1,2
1. School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China; 2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China; 3. Capital Medical University Yangjing Medical College, Beijing 101321, China; 4. Beijing Physical Examination Center, Beijing 100077, China; 5. Beijing Xiaotangshan Hospital, Beijing 102211, China
Abstract：Objective To construct a prediction model of fasting glucose impairment within 10 years in adults in Beijing, and to establish a visual nomogram of risk score. Methods This study used the data about Beijing health management cohort study from 2009 to 2018. Taking the first data from 2009 to 2013 as the baseline data, the Cox proportional hazards regression was used to construct the prediction model of fasting glucose impairment. We established the visual nomogram of fasting glucose impairment, and evaluated the nomogram through the C index. Results A total of 5,574 residents aged 18-89 years were included in this study, including 4,459 in the training set. The average follow-up was (6.78±1.78) years. A total of 544 (12.20%) cases had impaired fasting blood glucose. In the validation set, 1,115 cases were followed up for an average of (6.83±1.82) years. A total of 128 (11.48%) cases had impaired fasting blood glucose. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that people with advanced age, high body mass index, high waist-to-hip ratio, hypertension, triglyceride abnormality, aspartate aminotransferase abnormality, and parental diabetes history were more likely to suffer impaired fasting blood glucose. The validation results revealed that the C index of the training set was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.72-0.76), and the C index of the validation set 0.73 (95%CI: 0.68-0.77). Conclusion The nomogram of adult fasting glucose impairment within 10 years constructed by this study is effective and has predictive value for high-risk persons who may progress to fasting glucose impairment.
刘晓磊, 刘相佟, 陶丽新, 刘佳, 陈硕, 康晓平, 张静波, 郭秀花. 空腹血糖受损预测模型与风险评分的建立[J]. 实用预防医学, 2022, 29(9): 1039-1043.
LIU Xiao-lei, LIU Xiang-tong, TAO Li-xin, LIU Jia, CHEN Shuo, KANG Xiao-ping, ZHANG Jing-bo, GUO Xiu-hua. Establishment of prediction model and risk score of impaired fasting glucose. , 2022, 29(9): 1039-1043.
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