1. Changsha Health Vocational College, Changsha, Hunan 410600, China; 2. Changsha Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan 410004, China
Abstract:Objective To study the transmission law of dengue fever outbreaks by applying epidemic dynamics model, and to make a quantitative evaluation on the effect of prevention and control measures, such as anti-mosquito and case isolation. Methods Based on the natural history of dengue fever, a susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIR) model of dengue fever outbreaks and epidemics was built. Data concerning dengue fever outbreaks in Guangzhou City in 2014 were collected for matching with the model. χ2 test was used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the simulated data and the practical epidemic data, and key parameters of the model were acquired. A community-based outbreak caused by an imported case was simulated by applying the model. A quantitative evaluation was made for assessing the development tendency of the epidemic situation under non-intervention, anti-mosquito, isolation, and anti-mosquito combined with isolation as well as the effects of different prevention and control measures so as to seek an optimized scheme of prevention and control. Results Simulations using the model were conducted, assuming one case of dengue virus type II was imported to a community with 10,000 residents. Dengue fever epidemic developed quickly without the intervention, the number of the infected cases showed an upward trend in a straight line, and the epidemic lasted for over 100 days, involving more than 450 cases. The effect of the epidemic control was not obvious after adopting isolation measures, but the epidemic situation was well controlled after adopting anti-mosquito measures. No difference was found in the effect of anti-mosquito betweentakingcomprehensive measures based on anti-mosquito combined with isolation and adopting single anti-mosquito measure. The sooner the anti-mosquito measure was taken, the better the effect showed. Conclusion Anti-mosquito is the most critical measure in prevention and control of dengue fever epidemic.Once the epidemic spreads among the population,isolation cannot reach the purpose to block the source of infection, and it can only be taken as a supplementary measure to control the epidemic outbreak.
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