Mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic diseases in a city of Hubei Province, 2014-2019
SHEN Wan-ying1, HUO Jun-rong2, HAO Guang1, ZENG Yu-xing1, ZHAO Xin-hai1, LIU Bo1, CHEN Qing-shan1
1. Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510632, China; 2. Zhongxiang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhongxiang, Hubei 431900, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze the changing trends of mortality and early death probability of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province, and to provide a basis for formulating the local planning for chronic disease prevention and control. Methods Based on the surveillance data of death causes of residents in Zhongxiang City from 2014 to 2019, the probability of premature death of chronic diseases was calculated by the principle of life table method. The trend chi-square test of the progress rate was carried out using SPSS 20.0 software. The annual percent changes (APC) of mortality and premature death probability were calculated by Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software. Results From 2014 to 2019, the crude death rate of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 495.02/100,000, and the standardized death rate 448.27/100,0002. The crude death rate of four kinds of chronic diseases was 457.77/100,000, and the standardized death rate 400.04/100,000. The standardized mortalities of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-6.60%, t=-8.18, P=0.001), females (APC=-7.04%, t=-3.04, P=0.039) and total population (APC=-6.23%, t=-4.78, P=0.009) showed downward trends, and the changing trends were statistically significant (all P<0.05). The probability of premature death from chronic diseases was 14.55%, and that from four kinds of chronic diseases 13.17%. The probability of premature death of cardio-cerebral-vascular diseases in males (APC=-2.53%, t=-2.78, P=0.049) showed a downward trend, and the changing trend was statistically significant (P<0.05). Trends in the probability of premature death from diabetes (APC=22.05%, t=2.84, P=0.048) showed a clear upward trend, and there were statistically significant differences in the changing trends (P<0.05). Conclusion The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases in Zhongxiang City, Hubei Province was 13.17%, which increased by 0.01% from 2014 to 2019. No statistically significant differences were found in the trend analysis, and there was still a big gap with the China Health 2030 target. The probability of premature death from four kinds of chronic diseases was higher in males than in females. Hence males are the key population for future chronic disease intervention. The probability of early death from diabetes increased significantly. Hence comprehensive interventions for diabetes should be given priority.
沈宛颖, 霍军荣, 郝光, 曾昱兴, 赵心海, 刘博, 陈青山. 2014—2019年湖北省某市慢性病死亡率及早死概率分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2021, 28(7): 769-773.
SHEN Wan-ying, HUO Jun-rong, HAO Guang, ZENG Yu-xing, ZHAO Xin-hai, LIU Bo, CHEN Qing-shan. Mortality and probability of premature death caused by chronic diseases in a city of Hubei Province, 2014-2019. , 2021, 28(7): 769-773.
[1] World Health Organization. World health statistics 2019: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development goals [EB/OL]. (2020-05-11)[2020-08-28]. https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/324835/9789241565707-eng.pdf?sequence=9&isAllowed=y. [2] World Health Organization. Assessing national capacity for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases:report of the 2015 global survey[M]. Geneva: WHO, 2016:149-151. [3] 国务院.“健康中国2030”规划纲要[EB/OL].(2016-10-25)[2020-08-28]. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/25/content_5124174.htm. [4] 中华人民共和国外交部. 中国落实2030年可持续发展议程国别方案[EB/OL].(2016-01-03)[2020-08-28]. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/ziliao_674904/zt_674979/dnzt_674981/qtzt/2030kcxfzyc_686343/. [5] World Health Organization. Global health estimates: deaths by cause, age, sex and country, 2000-2012[R]. Geneva: WHO, 2014:1-25. [6] 国务院第六次全国人口普查办公室. 2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2011:153. [7] 胡池,徐勇,吴婵,等. 2007—2016年宜昌市城区慢性非传染性疾病死亡及早死概率分析[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2018, 29(1):72-74. [8] 刘增超,胡磊. 2012—2016年无锡市新吴区慢性非传染性疾病早死概率研究[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2018, 29 (1):122-124. [9] 毕云静.慢性病防治工作现状及存在问题和对策建议的探讨[J].中国城乡企业卫生,2020,35(2):43-45. [10] 张干深,罗丽莎,崔芳芳,等. 1990年与2015年中国心血管病危险因素疾病负担分析[J].中国卫生统计, 2018, 35(3):57-61. [11] 刘增超,胡磊. 2012—2016年无锡市新吴区慢性非传染性疾病早死概率研究[J]. 公共卫生与预防医学, 2018, 29(1):122-124. [12] 国务院新闻办公室.北京举行《2016年度北京市卫生与人群健康状况报告》新闻发布会[EB/OL]. (2017-07-26)[2020-08-28]. http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/gssxwfbh/xwfbh/beijing/Document/1560069/1560069.htm. [13] 丁贤彬,焦艳,毛德强,等.2010—2018年重庆市糖尿病早死概率变化趋势[J].实用预防医学,2019,26(11):1284-1288. [14] 汤胜蓝,葛延风. 实现“健康中国2030”目标—基于实证的研究[M]. 北京:人民卫生出版社, 2019:190-194. [15] 胡蓉,周桂凤,周建湘,等.2015年长沙市雨花区成人主要慢性病流行现状及影响因素分析[J].实用预防医学,2017,24(11):1349-1353.
2021, Vol. 28 
