Prediction of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City in 2020 based on ARIMA model
ZHOU Xing1, LUO Qiang2, LONG Ming-yan1, ZHANG Tian-cheng1
1. School of Public Health, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan 421001, China; 2. Hengyang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hengyang, Hunan 421001, China
Abstract：Objective To use an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model for the prediction of incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis so as to provide a basis for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and treatment and development of intervention measures. Methods We collected the data regarding the monthly incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City from January 2010 to December 2019. SPSS22.0 software was used for data analysis. An ARIMA model was constructed to predict theincidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City. Results A total of 66,257 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in Hengyang City from 2010 to 2019. The overall incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City from 2010 to 2018 showed a slight downward trend. The incidence rate in 2019 was rebounded, and the incidence was mainly concentrated from February to June. The ARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 model was the best model for fitting the monthly incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City. Using the ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 model to predict the monthly incidence rates of pulmonary tuberculosis in the first half of 2020, the predicted monthly incidence rates and the actual incidence rates were all within the 95% confidence interval, and the median relative error was 16.54%. The model predicted well the real conditions. Conclusion The ARIMA (0,1,1) × (0,1,1)12 model can better fit thechanging trend ofincidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City. It can be used for short-term prediction of incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City, and has better practical value for pulmonary tuberculosis prediction.
周星, 罗强, 龙鸣燕, 张天成. 基于ARIMA模型的2020年衡阳市肺结核发病趋势预测[J]. 实用预防医学, 2021, 28(5): 568-572.
ZHOU Xing, LUO Qiang, LONG Ming-yan, ZHANG Tian-cheng. Prediction of incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hengyang City in 2020 based on ARIMA model. , 2021, 28(5): 568-572.
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2021, Vol. 28 
