Study on a method of rapid risk assessment on community spread of COVID-19
LU Jian-hua1, HE Jian-fan1, ZHANG Shun-xiang1, XIE Xu1, WU Yong-sheng1, XU Shu-le1, LI Min-min2, FENG Tie-jian1
1. Shenzhen Municipal Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China; 2. Beihua University, Changchun, Jilin 132000, China
Abstract：Objective To explore a method of risk assessment on community spread of street-based COVID-19 epidemic so as to improve the public health management level of the government. Methods Comprehensive scoring methods were used to integrate key information about COVID-19 confirmed cases reported in Shenzhen, and then a method of rapid risk assessment on COVID-19 community spread was established. Results As of February 29, 2020, a total of 417 COVID-19 confirmed cases were accumulatively reported in Shenzhen City, of which there were 224 (53.7%) cases caused by Wuhan, Hubei as the source of infection, 80 (19.2%) cases caused by other regions of Hubei Province, 38 (9.1%) cases caused by other provinces and cities, and 75 (18.0%) casesinfected withinShenzhen City. The key indicators of the method of rapid risk assessment on COVID-19 community spread were selected, including the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases within 14 days (X1), the proportion of COVID-19 cases with clear source of infection within 14 days (X2) and the proportion of communities with COVID-19 occurring in the streets within 14 days (X3), and the evaluation equation was Y=0.4X1+0.5X2+0.1X3. 392 previously-reported COVID-19 confirmed cases with definite present address were checked back, revealing there were 15 (20.2%) high-risk streets, 25 (33.8%) medium-risk streets and 34 (50.0%) low-risk streets. The proportions of high-risk and medium-risk streets in Futian District, Nanshan District, Longhua District, and Longgang District were all more than 60%. Conclusions The method of rapid risk assessment on COVID-19 community spread is simple and effective, and it is conducive to the implementation of precise prevention and control of COVID-19.
逯建华, 何建凡, 张顺祥, 谢旭, 吴永胜, 许舒乐, 李敏敏, 冯铁建. 深圳市新型冠状病毒肺炎社区传播风险快速评估方法研究[J]. 实用预防医学, 2021, 28(4): 418-421.
LU Jian-hua, HE Jian-fan, ZHANG Shun-xiang, XIE Xu, WU Yong-sheng, XU Shu-le, LI Min-min, FENG Tie-jian. Study on a method of rapid risk assessment on community spread of COVID-19. , 2021, 28(4): 418-421.
2021, Vol. 28 
