Abstract：Objective To compare the application of two risk assessment methods based on absolute indicators (hereinafter referred to as the absolute method) and relative indicators (hereinafter referred to as the relative method) to evaluating COVID-19 epidemic situation. Methods The absolute method was used to calculate the risk level based on four indicators, including the cumulative number of confirmed cases, the proportion of confirmed cases in the past week, the number of cluster outbreaks in the past week and newly-confirmed cases in the past week. The relative methodwas used tocalculate the risk level based on four indicators, including the proportion of locally sporadic confirmed cases in the past week, the proportion of confirmed cases in the past week, the number of cluster outbreaks in the past week and the number of newly-confirmed cases in the past week. Taking the data about COVID-19 epidemic in Jingzhou City as an example, the two methods were used to compare the risk levels of the early epidemic (February 1), the mid-epidemic (February 15) and the end of the epidemic (February 27). Results Among the risk levels evaluated by the two methods, 33.3% (8/24) were completely consistent, 50.0% (12/24) were different from one level, and 16.7% (4/24) were different from two levels or more. At the early epidemic, Jingzhou District, Gong'an County, Honghu City and Songzi City were evaluated as the areas with high risk and above based on the relative method, but the four above-mentioned areas were evaluated as the areas with middle risk and below based on the absolute method. The risk levels of the mid-epidemic and the end of the epidemic evaluated by the two methods were completely consistent or different from one level. Conclusions The risk levels evaluated by the two methods are similar, and both can be used for assessing COVID-19 epidemic situation. The relative method is more suitable for evaluating the risk level of the early epidemic.
2021, Vol. 28 
