Abstract：Objective To build time series autoregressive moving average model-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the reported incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in Sichuan province from 2004 to 2019, to analyze thespatio-temporal changing trends of TB, and to provide a basisfor comprehensive prevention and control of TB. Methods We analyzed the incidence of TB in Sichuan province from January 2004 to December 2019, established ARIMA time series model based on the monthly TB incidence, drew the thematic map of spatial distribution of annual incidence rate of TB, and analyzed spatio-temporal epidemiological characteristics and trends of TB in Sichuan. Results The incidence of TB in Sichuan province in 2004-2018 continuously decreased, but a slight rise was found in 2019. The incidence of TB was slightly higher in winter and spring. TB epidemics in the whole province mostly occurred in the sparsely populated areas of western Sichuan and northeast Sichuan, and remained stable. The reported TB incidence in 2020 predicted by ARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,0)12 model was slightly higher than that in 2019. Conclusions ARIMA model can appropriately fit and be used for short-term prediction of the reported TB incidence in Sichuan province. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and trends of TB epidemics can provide references for comprehensive prevention and control of TB such as risk assessment and screening of key areas and populations.
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2020, Vol. 27 
