湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的时空分布特征初步分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-3110.2020.08.002

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摘要目的分析湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎,COVID-19)时空分布特征,了解湖北省COVID-19疫情的一般流行及时空聚集情况,为疫情防控提供依据与支持。方法收集湖北省截至2020年2月10日COVID-19疫情病例数据,利用OpenGeoda1.2.0软件分析COVID-19发病的空间相关性,TScan9.4.2探索其时空聚集性;利用ArcMap10.2与 R-3.5.1软件进行COVID-19疫情的图形可视化。结果 (1)截至2020年2月10日,湖北省累计报告COVID-19确诊病例31 762例,平均每日新增确诊病例1 025例,累计死亡病例974例,累计治愈病例2 222例。累计确诊病例主要集中在武汉市(18 454例,占比58.10%)、孝感市(2 642例,占比8.32%)、黄冈市(2 332例,占比7.34%)等地区。(2)研究期内,湖北省COVID-19病例数呈现空间正相关,高-高聚集地区为武汉市、孝感市、鄂州市、黄冈市及黄石市。时空扫描进一步分析发现COVID-19病例一类聚集区为武汉市;二类聚集区中,随州市与孝感市,黄冈市、鄂州市与黄石市存在城市之间的聚集性发病。结论研究期内湖北省COVID-19疫情防控形势依然严峻,相关部门应持续加强疫情防控措施以控制疫情发展;湖北省COVID-19疫情存在空间聚集性,提示在疫情暴发初期控制人群流动性对控制新冠肺炎疫情的传播与流行是十分重要的。

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	刘勋
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	陈炜

关键词 ：新型冠状病毒肺炎, 时空分布, 湖北省

Abstract：Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei province, and to understand the prevalence features and spatiotemporal aggregation of the COVID-19 epidemic so as to provide evidence and support for epidemic prevention and control. Methods The data about COVID-19 cases in Hubei province as of February 10, 2020 were collected. OpenGeoda1.2.0 software was used to analyze the spatial correlation of COVID-19 incidence. TScan9.4.2 was employed to explore its temporal-spatial clustering. ArcMap10.2 and R-3.5.1 were applied to graphical visualization of COVID-19 epidemic. Results Hubei province cumulatively reported 31,762 confirmed cases as of February 10, 2020, with an average of 1,025 newly-confirmed cases per day. Cumulatively 974 deaths and 2,222 cured cases were reported. The cumulatively-confirmed cases were mainly distributed in Wuhan city (18,454 cases, accounting for 58.10%), Xiaogan city (2,642 cases, accounting for 8.32%), and Huanggang city (2,332 cases, accounting for 7.34%). During the study period, the number of COVID-19 cases in Hubei province showed a positive spatial correlation. The high-high clusters were distributed in Wuhan city, Xiaogan city, Ezhou city, Huanggang city and Huangshi city. Spatiotemporal scanning further found that the most likely cluster area was Wuhan city. Among the secondary cluster areas, there were clustered outbreaks between Suizhou city and Xiaogan city as well as between Huangshi city and Huanggang city, Ezhou city. Conclusions During the study period, the situation of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in Hubei province is still severe; and hence, relevant departments should continue to strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures so as to control the development of the epidemic. The COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei province has spatial aggregation, indicating that controlling population mobility at the initial stage of disease outbreak is very important to control the spread and epidemic of COVID-19.

Key words： coronavirus disease 2019 spatiotemporal distribution Hubei province

收稿日期: 2020-03-20

R563.1+4

通讯作者: 陈炜,E-mail:chongqingchenwei@126.com。

作者简介: 刘勋(1991-),男,重庆人,硕士,研究方向:空间流行病学与机器学习应用。

引用本文:

刘勋, 孟秋雨, 张鸿, 刘雅文, 陈炜. 湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的时空分布特征初步分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2020, 27(8): 902-905. LIU Xun, MENG Qiu-yu, ZHANG Hong, LIU Ya-wen, CHEN Wei. Preliminary analysis of spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic in Hubei province. , 2020, 27(8): 902-905.

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