Abstract：Objective To explore the feasibility of system dynamics model for evaluating the health management of type 2 diabetes, and to build a model suitable for local populations. Methods The population dynamics of type 2 diabetes served as the research subject. Based on a systematic review of a similar mathematical model established by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a system dynamics model was developed by determining the system boundary, constructing the system flow diagram and outlining the system structure. According to the situation of Xuhui District, the risk ratio, number of population, prevalence, diagnosis rate and management rate of Asian diabetes were adjusted, and then the initial simulation was performed. Results A system dynamics model suitable for the health management of type 2 diabetes in local population was established. The Results of the initial simulation revealed that the prevalence rate of type 2 diabetes in Xuhui District from 2010 to 2020 would increase from 6.6% to 11.6%, and the rising trend would not slow down. The mortality rate in the same period would increase from 32/100,000 to 70/100,000, and the rising trend would slow down. Conclusions The system dynamics model can predict the morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes, and provide a new perspective and method for the evaluation and adjustment of health management mechanism.
张成钢, 王现, 朱博城, 王飞, 吴佳倩. 基于系统动力学的2型糖尿病管理模型构建与初步仿真[J]. 实用预防医学, 2019, 26(8): 1016-1019.
ZHANG Cheng-gang,WANG Xian,ZHU Bo-cheng,WANG Fei,WU Jia-qian. Establishment and initial simulation of type 2 diabetes management model based on system dynamics. , 2019, 26(8): 1016-1019.
[1] 国家卫生计生委疾病预防控制局.中国居民营养与慢性病状况报告(2015年)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2015:51-53. [2] Ripsin CM, Kang H, Urban RJ. Management of blood glucose in type 2 diabetes mellitus[J]. Am Fam Physician,2009,79(1):29-36. [3] Homer JB, Jones AP, Seville D, et al. The CDC's diabetes systems modeling project: developing a new tool for chronic disease prevention and control [EB/OL].(2014-01-01)[2018-10-20]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228543463. [4] Homer JB, Jones AP. Diabetes system model reference guide[EB/OL]. (2004-10-01)[2018-10-20].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241612894. [5] 张彦琦,潘传波,张玲,等. 系统动力学方法在慢性病管理中的应用[J].成都医学院学报,2012,7(1):18-21. [6] 王超. 中国成人超重和肥胖及主要危险因素对糖尿病发病的影响[D].北京:北京协和医学院,2014. [7] 中华医学会糖尿病分会.中国2型糖尿病防治指南(2013年版)[M].北京:北京大学医学出版社,2015:1-4. [8] 董时广,苏桦,欧阳乐宣,等.社区规范化管理对 2 型糖尿病的效果评价[J].实用预防医学,2015,22(10):1218-1219. [9] 张坚,王春荣,付萍.2002年中国城市居民糖尿病流行状况分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2007,41(1):4-7. [10] 刘敏,刘世炜,王黎君.1990－2016年中国糖尿病患病和伤残导致负担分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2018,26(12):881-889. [11] 王其藩.高级系统动力学[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,1995:3-5
2019, Vol. 26 
