Abstract：Objective To evaluate the effect of external temperature on influenza incidence by using a model, and to provide a basis for early warning and prediction of influenza incidence. Methods The data of daily reported influenza cases and temperature data in Ganzhou City during 2014-2016 were collected, and the relationship between the temperature and influenza incidence was analyzed by using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). Results The number of daily influenza cases was negatively correlated with the daily average temperature, the daily maximum temperature and the daily temperature difference (all P<0.05), but not correlated with the daily minimum temperature (P>0.05). The incidence of influenza changed with the variation of the daily average temperature, and it showed a nonlinear relationship, with 25 ℃ being the optimum temperature.The risk of influenza on the day with an average temperature of below 16.00 ℃increased significantly (RR>1, 95%CI>1). When the day average temperature was less than 25.00 ℃, the risk of influenza at a lag of one-day increased significantly (RR>1, 95%CI>1). Conclusions Temperature is obviously related to the incidence of influenza, but its hysteresis effect is relatively weak.
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