Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of gonorrhea in Hainan Province and to quantitatively forecast its incidence tendency so as to provide a basis for further targetedly putting forward prevention and control strategies. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of gonorrhea in Hainan Province during 2010-2016, and the ARIMA model was applied to forecasting the incidence trend of gonorrhea during 2017-2019. Results The incidence rate of gonorrhea and its proportion in the class A and B infectious diseases in Hainan Province in 2010-2016 presented an upward tendency. The distribution of the incidence areas in the province was unbalanced, and Sanya City was the high incidence area, exceeding the mean level of the province 207.94%. The male patients were significantly more than the female ones, with the sex ratio being 5.19:1. Most of the cases were patients aged 20-34 years, accounting for 62.44%. The patients with unknown occupation and other occupation occupied the majority (27.41%). The ARIMA model (0,1,1) was established according to the number of monthly incidence, and the prediction results indicated that the incidence of gonorrhea in 2017-2019 still showed an increasing tendency year by year. Conclusions The prevention and control situation of gonorrhea in Hainan Province can not be ignored. Timely adjusting prevention and control strategies and measures and strengthening efforts are the best means of reducing its incidence.
2018, Vol. 25 
