Abstract：ObjectiveTo use time series autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA) model to forecast the monthly incidence number of hand foot and mouth disease（HFDM）in Jianye District of Nanjing City, so as to provide reference for the development of HFDM prevention and control strateg.MethodsAccording to the time series of reported monthly incidence of HFMD in Jianye District of Nanjing City form 2009 to 2013, the incidence of 1-8 months of 2014 as the validation data, build ARIMA model of monthly incidence of HFMD in Jianye District of Nanjing City.ResultsThe model predicting monthly incidence of HFMD in Jianye District of Nanjing City is ARIMA(1,0,0) ×(0,1,1)12,in which autoregressive （AR1） was 0. 569 （t = 5.030,P < 0. 001）,Ljung-Box Q has no statistical significance （Ljung-Box Q =13.296,P = 0. 651）.The average of the relative error between actual and predicted values from January to August in 2014 is 16.32%（maximum36.78%,minimum 3.57%）.ConclusionARIMA model can be used for prediction monthly incidence of HFDM in Jianye District of Nanjing City in short term, to improve the precision of prediction model by continuous accumulation of pending data.
单良. 基于时间序列模型的南京市建邺区手足口病发病趋势预测分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2015, 22(9): 1143-1147.
SHAN Liang. Prediction and analysis of incidence trend of HFMD in Jianye District of Nanjing City based on the time series model. , 2015, 22(9): 1143-1147.
2015, Vol. 22 
