Abstract：Objective To explore the application of time series model to predicting viral hepatitis A (VHA) so as to provide a scientific basis for adopting the prevention and control measures in the next step. Methods According to the monthly incidence of VHA in Yichang City from 2005 to 2015, 2 kinds of models were built to predict the incidence of VHA in 2016. The agreement between the predicted value and the actual value of VHA incidence was evaluated. Results ARIMA model required the stable data. The incidence of VHA in Yichang City showed seasonal fluctuations and belonged to unstable data firstly, but the data about the years of 2010-2015 were stable. The monthly incidence of VHA in Yichang City during 2010-2015 was treated by seasonal difference (Z=1.447,P=0.148), then the parameters were estimated(BIC=-4.293)and white noise test was made (Q=22.150,P=0.138), after that the ARIMA model was built. The optimal model was the ARIMA (0, 0, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model, which could well simulate incidence of VHA. Conclusions The changing trend of time series of VHA incidence can be simulated well using the ARIMA (0, 0, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model, and it can provide a basis for formulating scientific prevention and control measures as well as strategies.
刘继恒, 贺圆圆, 张皓, 周红雨. 基于时间序列模型对甲型病毒性肝炎的预测研究[J]. 实用预防医学, 2017, 24(8): 1009-1011.
LIU Ji-heng, HE Yuan-yuan, ZHANG Hao, ZHOU Hong-yu. Prediction of viral hepatitis A based on time series model. , 2017, 24(8): 1009-1011.
2017, Vol. 24 
