Abstract：Objectives To forecast trend of AIDS from 2014 to 2016 in Shenzhen; to provide scientific reference for prevention and control policy. MethodsReported cases of HIV/AIDS from 2002 to 2013 were analyzed in grey model. ResultsBased on the data, the gray systemic model was set up: x(t)=3.3482e0.1187*(t-1)-3.1028, the fitting results showed that the model was excellent（C=0.2720,P=1）. ConclusionThe results were reliable. The reported cases of HIV/AIDS would increased in the next several years. It should pay more strengthen to control the disease.
谭京广,杨峥嵘,陈琳,刘少础,罗亦娟,谢炜. 深圳市艾滋病病例报告灰色预测[J]. 实用预防医学, 2015, 22(12): 1521-1523.
Tan Jingguang, Yang Zhenrong, Chen Lin, et al. GREY FORCAST TO case-reporting OF Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome(AIDS) IN SHENZHEN. , 2015, 22(12): 1521-1523.
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