Abstract：Objective:To analyse the epidemic characteristics and test the feasibility of SARIMA model for predicting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiang'an district. Methods:The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiang'an district has been analyzed by using SPSS software to acquire the epidemic characteristics. The stabilization of the incidence cases by month has been completed by employing difference and nature log transform. After that, the estimation and test of model parameter and the selection of optimized model has been implemented. Results:The average incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiang'an district between 2011 to 2014 was 231.40/10/100,000.From April to July and September were the two incidence peaks. The cases mainly distributed under age 5 which accounting for 93.89% of all cases. The composition of pathogen was as follows, the major part of infection was caused by other enterovirus, accounting for 43.8% of total cases,and CoxA16 rated as the second position, accounting for 31.4% and EV71 only responsible for27.8% of total infection. SARIMA (0,1,0) (1,1,0) was capable of fitting the monthly incidence data of hand-foot-mouth disease. Conclusion:Due to the high incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiang'an district, SARIMA would be an appropriate method to perform the short-term forecasting.
叶永同, 颜玉炳. 厦门市翔安区手足口病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测方法研究[J]. 实用预防医学, 2016, 23(2): 237-239.
YE Yong-tong, YAN Yu-bing. Study on epidemic characteristics and prediction method of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xiang'an district, Xiamen City. , 2016, 23(2): 237-239.
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2016, Vol. 23 
