Changing characteristics of epidemic trends of main notifiable infectious diseases among the elderly aged 60 years and above in Guangdong province during 2005-2017 based on a Joinpoint regression model
ZENG Si-qing, ZHONG Hao-jie, DAI Ji-ya, HUANG Qiong
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, China
Abstract：Objective To understand the changing features of epidemic trends of notifiable infectious diseases among the elderly aged 60 years and over in Guangdong province in 2005-2017 so as to provide references for developing prevention and control measures. Methods A Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the data about notifiable infectious diseases among the elderly aged 60 years and above in Guangdong province during 2005-2017. The mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the fitting accuracy of the model. Results The MAPEs of the fitted model for the morbidity and mortality rates of both males and females were 6.97% and 3.25%, those for the incidence and mortality rates of males were 6.72% and 4.10%, and those for the incidence and mortality rates of females were 7.60% and 3.63%, respectively. The mean annual morbidity and mortality rates were 621.46/100,000 and 4.93/100,000 in males, and 253.68/100,000, and 1.13/100,000 in females. A comparison between males and females showed that the relative risk was 2.42 in males and 4.42 in females; moreover, the change trends of morbidity and mortality rates of males and females were both unbalanced(P=0.000, P=0.004). The trends of annual morbidity rates of both males and females and only males were relatively stable(βtotal=4.405, βmale=0.245, both P>0.05), but the annual morbidity rate of females showed an upward trend(βfemale=7.895, P<0.05), without a turning point in their change trends. The mortality rates of both males and females and only males showed an up-down-up trend, while those of females presented an up-down-down trend, with two turning points occurring in 2009 and 2012, respectively. Among the top three diseases by morbidity, the morbidity rate of tuberculosis experienced an up-down-slowly-up trend, with two turning points occurring in 2009 and 2011, respectively. The morbidity rate of syphilis showed a sustained and rapid upward trend, with a turning point occurring in 2013. The morbidity rate of infectious diarrhea remained steady. Among the top three diseases bymortality, the mortality rate of AIDS presented a rapid increase trend. The mortality rate of tuberculosis showed a slowly-down-down-slowly-up trend, with two turning points occurring in 2010 and 2013, respectively. The mortality rate of rabies showed an up-down-down trend, with two turning points occurring in 2009 and 2012, respectively. The morbidity and mortality rates of the main infectious diseases were all higher in the males than in the females, and their change trends were all unbalanced(all P<0.05). Conclusions The changing characteristics of trends of morbidity and mortality rates of infectious diseases among the elderly aged 60 years and above in Guangdong province were obvious; moreover, there existed significant differences in disease types and genders, the risk of morbidity and mortality were consistently higher in males than in females, and the changing trends of them were unbalanced. It is necessary to take comprehensive and coordinated prevention and treatment measures mainly againsttuberculosis, syphilis and AIDS.
曾四清, 钟豪杰, 代吉亚, 黄琼. 基于Joinpoint回归模型的2005—2017年广东省≥60岁老年人主要传染病流行趋势变化特征分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2020, 27(10): 1210-1214.
ZENG Si-qing, ZHONG Hao-jie, DAI Ji-ya, HUANG Qiong. Changing characteristics of epidemic trends of main notifiable infectious diseases among the elderly aged 60 years and above in Guangdong province during 2005-2017 based on a Joinpoint regression model. , 2020, 27(10): 1210-1214.
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2020, Vol. 27 
