Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sanmenxia city
ZHANG Xiao-feng1, YOU Ai-guo2, PAN Jing-jing2, CUI Fa-zeng1, WU Shu-xing1, SUN Chang-qing3
1. Sanmenxia Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Sanmenxia, Henan 472000, China; 2. Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou, Henan 450016, China; 3. School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450001, China
Abstract：Objective To establish an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) based on the incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Sanmenxia city, and use the model to predict the incidence of HFMD in Sanmenxia city. Methods Based on the monthly incidence data of HFMD in Sanmenxia city from January 2008 to December 2017, the optimal ARIMA model was established after literature review and verification. The number of HFMD cases from January to December 2018 was predicted, and the predictive effect was evaluated by comparing with the actual value. Results The forecasting model of HFMD incidence in Sanmenxia city was ARIMA (1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12, and all parameters of the model had statistical significance (P<0.001). Through the test of goodness of fit, the value of Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was 0.287, the residual sequence was a white noise sequence (P=0.10), and the fitting effect was better. The number of HFMD cases in Sanmenxia city from January to December 2018 was predicted, and thena comparison of the predicted andactual values was conducted.A higher degree of conformity was found between the predicted and actual values from January to February. Conclusions The fitting effect of the ARIMA model of HFMD incidence in Sanmenxia city is good, and it can be used to predict the short-time incidence trend of HFMD in Sanmenxia city.
张晓峰 , 尤爱国 , 潘静静 , 崔法曾 , 武恕星 , 孙长青. ARIMA模型在三门峡市手足口病发病预测中的应用[J]. 实用预防医学, 2020, 27(2): 168-170.
ZHANG Xiao-feng, YOU Ai-guo, PAN Jing-jing, CUI Fa-zeng, WU Shu-xing, SUN Chang-qing. Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sanmenxia city. , 2020, 27(2): 168-170.
2020, Vol. 27 
