多曲线季节指数模型分析广东省登革热流行时间特征及应用探讨

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-3110.2018.09.034

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摘要目的建立广东省登革热疫情月份分布特征分析模型,并利用该模型进行疫情预测和防控效果评估。方法收集广东省1990-2016年各月登革热监测报告发病数,拟合多曲线季节指数模型。结果各月(x)发生登革热概率的拟合模型方程为:S=36.585-17.436x+5.425x²-0.318x³ (S≥0%,R²=0.980,P=0.000);多曲线季节指数模型为:S=-0.001+0.008x-0.003x²+0.000x³ (S≥0, x=1,2,3,4,5,6,R²=0.992,P=0.012);S=e^{-14.021+1.733x}(S≥0,x=7,R²=0.981,P=0.001);S=-189.883+41.304x-2.181x² (S≥0,x=8,9,10,11,R²=0.998,P=0.048);S=1.274E12×e^-2.612x(S≥0, x=12,R²=0.995,P=0.043)。结果发现,7-11月为广东省登革热高发生风险、高流行强度月份;1995年和2014年两年是广东省登革热异常暴发年;从2013年开始,广东省登革热疫情月度发生态势和流行特征发生悄然变化,发生异常疫情的月份时间提前、频次增加、强度增大,并可能引起下半年的疫情高发态势。采用该模型评估表明,广东省2015、2016年登革热早防早控措施效果明显。结论多曲线模型拟合登革热流行季节指数效果较好,该模型既可以用于登革热疫情的月份分布特征分析,开展早期预测预警,以便做到早发现早防控,还可用于评估防控措施的效果。

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	曾四清
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	肖建鹏
	刘涛

关键词 ：登革热, 季节指数, 多曲线模型, 预测, 评估

Abstract：Objective To establish a seasonal index model to describe the monthly distribution characteristics of dengue fever in Guangdong Province so as to predict the epidemic situation and evaluate the effect of prevention and control measures. Methods The reported monthly incidence data of dengue fever in Guangdong Province during 1990-2016 were collected, and multi-curve models were selected to simulate the seasonal index of dengue fever epidemic. Results The equation of simulation model for the monthly occurring rate of dengue fever wasS=36.585-17.436x+5.425x²-0.318x³ (S≥0%,R²=0.980,P=0.000).The equations of simulation model for seasonal index of dengue fever epidemic ran as follows:S=-0.001+0.008x-0.003x²+0.000x³ (S≥0, x=1,2,3,4,5,6,R²=0.992,P=0.012);S=e^{-14.021+1.733x}(S≥0,x=7,R²=0.981,P=0.001);S=-189.883+41.304x-2.181x² (S≥0,x=8,9,10,11,R²=0.998,P=0.048);S=1.274E12*e^-2.612x(S≥0, x=12,R²=0.995,P=0.043). The Results revealed that there were much higher occurring risk and higher incidence level of dengue fever in July-November in Guangdong Province as well as great abnormal outbreaks of dengue fever in 1995 and 2014. The monthly incidence tendency and temporal distribution characteristics of dengue fever epidemic in Guangdong Province had gradually changed since 2013. The month with abnormal outbreaks of dengue fever moved forward, the outbreak frequency incereaed, the intensity was enlarged, and these changes tended to lead to a high epedimic in the second half of a year. The Results evaluated by the model revealed that the actions of early prevention and control had significant effects on preventing the epidemics of dengue fever in Guangdong Province in 2015-2016. Conclusions Multi-curve models are fit for the simulation of seasonal index of dengue fever. The models can not only be used to describe the monthly temporal distribution characteristics of dengue fever, early detect and predict the situation of the epidemic to achieve early discovery and early prevention and control, but also be used to evaluate the effect of prevention and control measures.

Key words： dengue fever seasonal index multi-curve model prediction evaluation

收稿日期: 2017-10-18

R512.8

基金资助:广东省科技计划项目(2014A040401041)

作者简介: 曾四清(1968-),男,湖北黄冈人,硕士,主任医师,研究方向:传染病预防控制。

引用本文:

曾四清, 钟豪杰, 方艳, 代吉亚, 肖建鹏, 刘涛. 多曲线季节指数模型分析广东省登革热流行时间特征及应用探讨[J]. 实用预防医学, 2018, 25(9): 1137-1141. ZENG Si-qing, ZHONG Hao-jie, FANG Yan, DAI Ji-ya,XIAO Jian-peng, LIU Tao. Analysis of temporal distribution characteristics of dengue fever in Guangdong Province by multi-curve seasonal index model and its application probe. , 2018, 25(9): 1137-1141.

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https://www.syyfyx.com/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-3110.2018.09.034 或 https://www.syyfyx.com/CN/Y2018/V25/I9/1137

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