Abstract：Objective To explore the feasibility of ARIMA model in the prediction of the prevalence of communicable diseases and to provide scientific basis for the control and prevention of communicable diseases. Methods Incidence of viral hepatitis and dysentery was collected monthly from 2003 to 2014 and a model(ARIMA)was fit with SAS 9.2 software, predict the monthly incidence of viral hepatitis and dysentery in 2015. Results The fitting effect with ARIMA model was good in the prediction of viral hepatitis and dysentery. Conclusions The change of time series of the prevalence of communicable diseases can be simulated with ARIMA model, which can provide evidence for the prediction of notifiable communicable diseases. The predicted values in 2015 suggested that the prevention and control strategies on viral hepatitis should be explored further.
郑慧敏, 薛允莲, 黄燕飞, 戴传文, 姜世强. ARIMA模型在深圳市法定传染病发病趋势预测的应用*[J]. 实用预防医学, 2016, 23(2): 240-243.
in Shenzhen City. Feasibility Study on ARIMA Model in the Prediction of Notifiable Communicable Diseases in Shenzhen City. , 2016, 23(2): 240-243.
2016, Vol. 23 
