Abstract：Objective: To study the seasonal trend model application hand-foot-mouth disease disease forecast in yichang, and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control.Methods: Based on every month hand-foot-mouth disease incidence season trend model from 2010to 2014 in yichang, and to judge the fitting of predicted value and actual value. Results: Hand-foot-mouth disease the actual value and the predicted values of the average relative error was 5.310% from 2010to 2014, better fitting effect of the model. Application of seasonal trend model can forecast the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2015.Conclusion: Seasonal trend model can better simulate hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in the trend of the time series, in order to supply evidence for establishing control strategy of the disease.
刘继恒, 白春林, 徐勇, 余凤萍, 张皓, 贺圆圆. 基于季节趋势模型对宜昌市手足口病的预测研究[J]. 实用预防医学, 2015, 22(12): 1524-1226.
LIU Ji-heng, BAI Chun-lin. Yichang Center for Disease Control, Prevention, Yichang443000, China. Application of seasonal trend model based on moving average for hand-foot-mouth disease of Prediction research. , 2015, 22(12): 1524-1226.
2015, Vol. 22 
