Prediction and analysis of medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers from a comparative perspective-based on the grey GM (1,1) model
MA Yi-wen1, ZHANG Qi-qi1, ZHUANG Tai-feng2
1. School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
2. Beijing Maternity Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100026, China
Abstract：Objective To analyze and predict the development trend of medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers, to find out the gap between Xinjiang and western regions, and to provide a basis for improving medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers. Methods Based on the data concerning Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook and National Health Statistical Yearbook from 2011 to 2019, the grey forecasting GM (1,1) model was used to analyze and predict the medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers from 2019 to 2025. Results From 2010 to 2018, the number of patients and the average daily number of doctors performing diagnosis and treatment in Xinjiang community health service centers showed increasing trends year by year, with 6.030 million patients and 11.9 ones by 2018, respectively. The bed utilization rate, the number of discharged patients, the average length of hospital stay of discharged patients and the number of inpatients per doctor per day showed an S-shaped change, with 42.9%, 47,000 discharged patients, 8.0 days and 0.8 bed per day by 2018, respectively. According to the prediction based on the grey GM (1,1) model, the number of patients, the number of daily patients per doctor and the number of discharged patients showed an upward trend from 2019 to 2025, and it was projected to increase to 11.0604 million patients, 15.73 patients and 48,100 discharged patients by 2025, respectively. The bed utilization rate, the average length of hospital stay and the number of inpatients per doctor per day showed a downward trend, and it was projected to fall to 39.52%, 7.07 days and 0.77 bed per day by 2025, respectively. Conclusion In the next few years, the medical service efficiency of Xinjiang community health service centers will still be at the medium and low level in the western region. The government should enhance the efficiency of inpatient service on the basis of improving the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment service according to the local actual situation.
马艺文, 张其其, 庄太凤. 对比视角下基于灰色GM(1,1)模型新疆社区卫生服务中心医疗服务效率预测分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2021, 28(8): 930-933.
MA Yi-wen, ZHANG Qi-qi, ZHUANG Tai-feng. Prediction and analysis of medical service efficiency in Xinjiang community health service centers from a comparative perspective-based on the grey GM (1,1) model. , 2021, 28(8): 930-933.
2021, Vol. 28 
