Abstract：Objective To describe and analyze the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hengyang city, and to preliminarily evaluate the effectiveness of its prevention and control measures. Methods We selected COVID-19 confirmed cases and asymptomatic cases network-directly reported in Hengyang city from China Information System for Disease Prevention and Control, retrospectively described the three-dimensional distribution of epidemic situation in Hengyang city, and analyzed the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19. Susceptible infected recovered (SIR) model was used in this study, Python was employed to solve the differential equation, and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures in Hengyang city was evaluated according to the difference between the predictive value and the actual value. Results Fifty-four confirmed cases and asymptomatic cases were accumulatively reported in Hengyang city from January 25, 2020 when the first confirmed case was reported in Hengyang city to March 2, 2020, of which 6 (11.11%) cases were asymptomatic. 32 (59.25%) imported cases and 22 (40.75%) local cases were reported. There were 35 male cases and 19 female cases, and the male-to-female ratio was 1.84∶1. Most of the cases (40/54, 74.1%) ranged in age from 30 to 60 years. Occupation distribution showed that the majority of the cases (18/54, 33.33%) were farmers/rural migrant workers. The epidemic curve revealed that the confirmed cases mainly occurred between January 23 and 30, and then occurred sporadically. All counties/cities/districts in Hengyang city reported confirmed cases except Nanyue district.The main clinical manifestation of the patients was fever (44/54), and 26 patients had a cough. Chest CT displayed 46 (95.83%) cases with patchy increased density shadow in lungs. The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and the number of discharged cases were introduced into the SIR model, and the number of actually confirmed cases was less than the number of confirmed cases predicted by the model, indicating that prevention and control measures in Hengyang city were effective. Conclusions The COVID-19 epidemic in Hengyang city shows a slowdown trend at present, which have benefited from effectively implementing prevention and control measures. It is still necessary to further enhance epidemic surveillance and management on account of the increase of importation of cases from abroad and the increasing population mobility due to local people going back to work and schools.
唐琳, 罗强, 刘军, 朱玲, 戴蕾, 陈秋生. 衡阳市新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析及防控措施评估[J]. 实用预防医学, 2020, 27(8): 912-915.
TANG Lin, LUO Qiang, LIU Jun, ZHU Ling, DAI Lei, CHEN Qiu-sheng. Epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 and evaluation of its prevention and control measures in Hengyang city. , 2020, 27(8): 912-915.
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2020, Vol. 27 
