Abstract：Objective To predict the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) through an optimal prediction model of HFMD incidence fitted by various mathematical models, and to provide a scientific basis for HFMD prevention and control. Methods SPSS18.0 software was employed to establish ARIMA, ARIMA-MLP and ARIMA-RBF models, and then the models were respectively used to fit the incidence of HFMD. The optimal prediction model was found out by comparing the three models. Results The goodness of fit R2 and MAE (mean absolute error) values of ARIMA, ARIMA-MLP and ARIMA-RBF models were 0.725 and 2.672, 0.724 and 2.672, 0.801 and 2.206 respectively. Conclusions ARIMA-RBF model has maximum R2 and minimum MAE, and its fitting efficiency is superior to those of two other models.
原凌云, 周以军, 朱妮, 焦欢, 杨敏, 张永英, 王娟. 多种数据模型在手足口病发病预测的应用探讨[J]. 实用预防医学, 2018, 25(11): 1400-1402.
YUAN Ling-yun, ZHOU Yi-jun, ZHU Ni, JIAO Huan, YANG Min, ZHANG Yong-ying, WANG Juan. Application of various data models in predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease. , 2018, 25(11): 1400-1402.
2018, Vol. 25 
