Abstract：Objective To quantitatively evaluate the impact of heat wave on the prevalence of three kinds of common infectious diseases. Methods An interrupted time series (ITS) technique was used to detect the trend changes in the daily-reported case number of three kinds of infectious diseases (including bacillary dysentery, hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and mumps) during the period of heat wave from June 30th to August 16th in 2013 in Changsha City, Hunan Province. Results The daily-reported case number of bacillary dysentery declined after the occurence of heat wave (b2=-0.20, P=0.30), but it showed a significantly increasing trend over time (b3=0.10, P=0.56). The daily-reported case number of HFMD increased after the occurence of heat wave (b2=0.04, P=0.63), but it showed a significantly decreasing trend over time (b3=-0.18, P=0.76). The daily-reported case number of mumps decreasedafter the occurence of heat wave (b2=-0.34, P=0.06), but it reversed from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend over time (b3=3.82, P=0.00). Durbin-Watson test indicated the possibility of auto-correlation (DW: 1.43-1.81). Conclusions In terms of possible impact of auto-correlation, it can not be ascribed changes in the daily-reported case number of three kinds of infectious diseases and their trends over time to heat wave.
张行易,杨嘉辉,胡国清,陈田木,谢知,刘如春. 高温热浪对三种常见传染病发病影响的间断时间序列分析[J]. 实用预防医学, 2018, 25(4): 445-447.
ZHANG Xing-yi, YANG Jia-hui, HU Guo-qing, CHEN Tian-mu, XIE Zhi, LIU Ru-chun. Impact of heat wave on the prevalence of three kinds of common infectious diseases: an interrupted time series analysis. , 2018, 25(4): 445-447.
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2018, Vol. 25 
