Abstract:Objective To analyze the changing trend and epidemic characteristics of mortality rate of thyroid cancer based on the Chinese Cancer Registration Annual Report from 2005 to 2015, and to provide a basis for conducting the work concerning targeted prevention and control of thyroid cancer. Methods Microsoft Excel 2016 was used to extract the data about thyroid cancer deaths from 2005 to 2015, and the Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the time-varying trend of mortality rate of thyroid cancer in China. Results From 2005 to 2015, the standardized mortality rate of thyroid cancer in China showed an overall upward trend (AAPC=2.91%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality rate and its rising trend were both higher in females than in males (AAPC=3.23%, P<0.05; AAPC=2.71%, P<0.05). The standardized mortality rate and its rising trend were both higher in urban areas than in rural ones (AAPC=3.68%, P<0.05; AAPC=3.00%, P>0.05). The standardized mortality rate of urban females was the highest, and its rising trend was also the fastest. The standardized mortality rate of rural males was the lowest, and its rising trend was the slowest. The age-specific trend of mortality rate of thyroid cancer revealed that the standardized mortality rate of thyroid cancer from 2005 to 2015 showed an upward trend with increasing age.As formales, females, urban and rural areas, the age-specific trends of mortality rate of thyroid cancerwere found to be increased rapidly in the age groups of 65-, 55-, 65-, and 50- years, respectively, reaching the peak of mortality in the age group of 85- years. Conclusion The standardized mortality rate of thyroid cancer in China from 2005 to 2015 showed an upward trend. The key population of deaths from thyroid cancer was urban females. The mortality rate of thyroid cancer displayed an increasing trend with increasing age, and the elderly population was a high-risk group for death from thyroid cancer.
[1] Jan S, Laba T, Essue BM, et al. Action to address the household economic burden of non-communicable diseases[J]. Lancet, 2018,391(10134):2047-2058. [2] Bray F, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, et al. Global cancer statistics 2018:GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries[J]. CA Cancer J Clin,2018,68(6):394-424. [3] Deng Y, Li H, Wang M, et al. Global burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2017[J]. JAMA Netw Open, 2020,3(6):e208759. [4] 赫捷. 2018年中国肿瘤登记年报[M].北京:人民出版社, 2019:178-179. [5] 张洁, 闫贻忠, 王丹, 等. 2005—2014年中国肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌发病的时间趋势分析[J]. 现代预防医学, 2020,47(4):577-591. [6] Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ, et al. Permutation tests for Joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J]. Stat Med, 2000, 19(3):335-351. [7] National Cancer Institute. Joinpoint trend analysis software[EB/OL]. (2020-04-22)[2020-07-16].https://surveillance.cancer.gov/joinpoint/. [8] Henley SJ,Ward EM,Scott S,et al.Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer,part I:national cancer statistics[J].Cancer,2020,126(10):2225-2249. [9] 何明艳, 朱碧琪, 钟媛,等. 2005—2013年中国女性乳腺癌发病及死亡趋势分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(1):16-20. [10] Salamanca-Fernández E, Rodriguez-Barranco M, Chang-Chan Y, et al. Thyroid cancer epidemiology in South Spain: a population-based time trend study[J]. Endocrine, 2018,62(2):423-431. [11] 任艳军,刘庆敏,葛明华,等.2010—2014年浙江省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌发病和死亡情况分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2019,53(10):1062-1065. [12] 郑文龙,张爽,沈成凤,等.天津市2010—2014年甲状腺癌流行特征及长期发病和死亡趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(9):670-674. [13] 韩婧,康骅.甲状腺癌的发病现状及影响因素[J].实用预防医学,2018,25(7):894-897. [14] Wang X, Cheng W, Li J, et al. A meta-analysis of alcohol consumption and thyroid cancer risk[J]. Oncotarget, 2016, 7(34):55912-55923. [15] Fidler MM, Soerjomataram I, Bray F. A global view on cancer incidence and national levels of the human development index[J]. Internat J Cancer, 2016,139(11):2436-2446. [16] Shao Y, Tsai K, Kim S, et al. Exposure to tomographic scans and cancer risks[J]. JNCI Cancer Spectrum, 2020,4(1):z72 [17] Lim H, Devesa SS, Sosa JA, et al. Trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in the united states, 1974-2013[J]. JAMA, 2017,317(13):1338. [18] 吴艳芬, 冯美静. 健康人群恶性肿瘤的检出分布对肿瘤筛检策略的警示[J]. 中国全科医学, 2020(21):2658-2663. [19] 韩玉萍,王桐桐,王婷,等.ER、PR及其相应拮抗剂与甲状腺癌的相关性研究进展[J].标记免疫分析与临床,2016,23(5) :571-574. [20] Zane M, Parello C, Pennelli G, et al. Estrogen and thyroid cancer is a stem affair: a preliminary study[J]. BiomedPharmacother, 2017,85:399-411. [21] Cordina-Duverger E, Leux C, Neri M, et al. Hormonal and reproductive risk factors of papillary thyroid cancer: a population-based case-control study in France[J]. Cancer Epidemiol, 2017, 48:78-84. [22] 周衍, 田俊, 肖景榕. 乳头状甲状腺癌患病影响因素病例对照研究[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016,32(11):1535-1539. [23] Corsten MJ, Hearn M, McDonald JT, et al. Incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer in Canada by city of residence[J]. J Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg, 2015,44(1):36. [24] 中国抗癌协会头颈肿瘤专业委员会.分化型甲状腺癌诊治指南[J].中国实用外科杂志, 2011,31(10):908-914. [25] 公益明,刘标,沈华,等.健康老年男性激素水平改变的临床意义[J].标记免疫分析与临床,2006,13(1):19-20,10. [26] 王磊,孙莉京,李瑾鑫.围绝经期女性性激素水平变化的观察[J].医学食疗与健康,2020,18(18):8,10. [27] 杨雷,孙婷婷,袁延楠,等.北京市女性居民乳腺癌发病与经济发展水平的相关性分析[J].中华肿瘤杂志,2014,36(9):713-716. [28] Xiuying Gu, Rongshou Zheng, Changfa Xia, 等. 中国预期寿命与癌症发病率和死亡率的相互影响:基于人群的聚类分析[J]. 癌症, 2019,38(1):23-38.