Abstract：Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of management of infection source of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Nanning City in 2016 by using the susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model. Methods Classical SIR model was employed to model the epidemic curve of HFMD in Nanning City in 2016. We estimated the changing tendency of infectious rate (β) over time. A parameter P (the effective management rate) was introduced into the model and the infected subjects were divided into the effective management group (with infectious rate β1) and the ineffective management group (with infectious rate β2). We evaluated the effectiveness of infection source management by interpreting these model fitting parameters and simulated different SIR models by changing these parameters to predict the effects of different infection control. Results The time-varying β had a Weibull distribution. The effective management rate was estimated to be 28.90%. As compared with cases with ineffective management, the infectious rate of cases with effective management decreased by 15.56%. The effective management rate increased from 28.9% to 68.9%. The number of the reported cases in 2016 decreased from 65,319 to 19,376. The number of yearly reported cases declined to 10,228 as the parameter b1 decreased from 3.8×10-5 to 2.28×10-5. Conclusions The SIR model is appropriate to evaluating the effectiveness of management of infection source of HFMD in this study area. The epidemics of HFMD are effectively controlled through improving the case effective management rate and reducing the infectious rate of cases with management. According to the distribution of β, implementing more aggressive measures for infection source control before the 11th week can gain better results.
唐驰, 郭泽强, 罗娜, 潘利花, 汤洪洋. 基于SIR模型对2016年南宁市手足口病传染源管理效果的评价[J]. 实用预防医学, 2019, 26(1): 114-116.
TANG Chi, GUO Ze-qiang, LUO Na, PAN Li-hua, TANG Hong-yang. Application of SIR model to assessing the effectiveness of management of infection source of hand, foot and mouth disease in Nanning City, 2016. , 2019, 26(1): 114-116.
2019, Vol. 26 
